Fourth Down Data
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MSST

Mississippi State

BulldogsBalanced
Southeastern Conference2-10#97 (-3.50)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

28· DOverall
Offense
55· CRating
51· CPer play
36· DConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
4· FPer play
0· FConsistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.004
Defensive EPA/play
+0.142
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.4%
Def Success Rate
53.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.137
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.170
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#97
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#122
model 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#27
recruiting 70 spots higher
18 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
57th
Opp-adjusted defense
9th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
0th
Points per drive
37th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Charlotte2022OA +0.026 / -0.239similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4092UConn2017OA -0.032 / -0.091similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, rushing offense3733Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3734Massachusetts2018OA -0.043 / -0.117similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3705UL Monroe2022OA +0.020 / -0.119similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense365

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Eastern Kentucky56-7W-26.5W61.5O
2@ Arizona State23-30L+4.5L58.5U
3vs Toledo17-41L-12.0L58P
4vs Florida28-45L+6.0L58O
5@ Texas13-35L+38.0W61.5U
7@ Georgia31-41L+34.0W53.5O
8vs Texas A&M24-34L+15.0W56O
9vs Arkansas25-58L+6.5L58O
10vs Massachusetts45-20W-18.0W59.5O
11@ Tennessee14-33L+23.5W61U
13vs Missouri20-39L+26.0W61.5U
14@ Ole Miss14-26L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-4-1
63.6%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off45thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off41thPass Def4thRush Def20thRed Zone Def37th3rd Down Def22th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03662th+0.1188th
Red Zone+0.02354th+0.06137th
Third Down+0.06841th+0.22022th
No Garbage Time+0.00450th+0.1514th
First Half-0.05733th+0.2351th
Second Half+0.15093th-0.00151th
Early Downs-0.04930th+0.08010th
Passing Downs+0.12880th+0.2564th
Standard Downs-0.01545th+0.06220th
Goal to Go-0.21420th+0.08836th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
8.7
Havoc Rate
11.5%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
377.2
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
20.7%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points310409
Points / Game25.834.1
First Downs
Total244286
Rushing94130
Passing122135
Penalty2821
Rushing
Attempts419523
Yards1,6552,603
Yards / Carry3.95.0
Yards / Game137.9216.9
Touchdowns1924
Passing
Attempts368341
Completions215240
Completion %58.4%70.4%
Yards2,8712,874
Yards / Attempt7.88.4
Touchdowns1923
Interceptions87
Passer Rating136.65159.33
Total Offense
Plays787864
Yards4,5265,477
Yards / Play5.86.3
Yards / Game377.2456.4
Punt Returns
Returns1814
Yards163132
Average9.19.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1210
Yards308169
Average25.716.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4437
Yards1,9711,505
Average44.840.7
Interception Returns
Returns78
Yards7259
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2012
Lost105
Penalties
Penalties8275
Yards723706
Yards / Game60.358.8
Time of Possession
Per Game25:4134:19
Third Downs
Attempts160165
Conversions5978
Conversion %36.9%47.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3719
Conversions2114
Conversion %56.8%73.7%
Red Zone
Trips4157
Scores (TD + FG)3349
Score %80.5%86.0%
Touchdowns2536
TD %61.0%63.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1225
Made1022
Pct83.3%88.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3947
Made3847
Pct97.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →