Fourth Down Data
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MASS

Massachusetts

MinutemenBalanced
Mid-American Conference4-8#120 (-9.45)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

10· FOverall
Offense
32· DRating
37· DPer play
45· CConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
4· FRating
3· FPer play
2· FConsistency
Situational
79· BRed-zone O
2· FRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
20· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.043
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.117
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.023
Defensive EPA/play
+0.185
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
53.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.208
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.009
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.59
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#120
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 43 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Massachusetts ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
33th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
37th
Defensive EPA/play
3th
Offensive success rate
57th
Explosiveness
63th
Defensive havoc
5th
Points per drive
48th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3692Old Dominion2018OA -0.024 / -0.145similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive success rate3463Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3384Florida International2017OA -0.036 / -0.111similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, pass defense3355Rutgers2025OA +0.072 / -0.178similar: passing offense, havoc rate, defensive success rate333

2018 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Duquesne63-15W----
1@ Boston College21-55L+20.5L62.5O
2@ Georgia Southern13-34L+1.5L61U
3@ Florida International24-63L+3.5L65.5O
4vs Charlotte49-31W-6.5W55.5O
5@ Ohio42-58L+11.5L70O
6vs South Florida42-58L+15.0L71.5O
8vs Coastal Carolina13-24L-2.5L74U
9@ UConn22-17W-3.5W63.5U
10vs Liberty62-59W+1.5W66O
11vs BYU16-35L+14.0L57U
12@ Georgia27-66L+41.5W67.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
3-8
27.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off65thRush Off70thRed Zone Off80th3rd Down Off36thPass Def4thRush Def9thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def20th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04668th+0.1574th
Red Zone+0.13680th+0.3822th
Third Down-0.00336th+0.20220th
No Garbage Time-0.00447th+0.1804th
First Half+0.01150th+0.1758th
Second Half+0.08579th+0.13710th
Early Downs+0.09790th+0.1513th
Passing Downs+0.04665th+0.2354th
Standard Downs+0.04670th+0.1239th
Goal to Go-0.02733th+0.25821th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.1%Rush 49.9%
Havoc/Game
9.6
Havoc Rate
13.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
437.6
Pts/Drive
2.17
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
21.7%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 12 games — Massachusetts vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMassachusettsOpponents
Scoring
Points394515
Points / Game32.842.9
First Downs
Total260287
Rushing88166
Passing155103
Penalty1718
Rushing
Attempts410567
Yards1,6743,294
Yards / Carry4.15.8
Yards / Game139.5274.5
Touchdowns2238
Passing
Attempts411279
Completions263178
Completion %64.0%63.8%
Yards3,5772,523
Yards / Attempt8.79.0
Touchdowns2725
Interceptions1012
Passer Rating153.91160.73
Total Offense
Plays821846
Yards5,2515,817
Yards / Play6.46.9
Yards / Game437.6484.8
Punt Returns
Returns819
Yards58183
Average7.39.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns5149
Yards1,000984
Average19.620.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5443
Yards2,0961,676
Average38.839.0
Interception Returns
Returns1210
Yards252151
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles2215
Lost148
Penalties
Penalties6850
Yards582432
Yards / Game48.536.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:2432:28
Third Downs
Attempts158144
Conversions5861
Conversion %36.7%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2720
Conversions1310
Conversion %48.1%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4860
Scores (TD + FG)4154
Score %85.4%90.0%
Touchdowns3145
TD %64.6%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1416
Made1114
Pct78.6%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5067
Made4965
Pct98.0%97.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →