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CLT
Charlotte
49ersBalancedAmerican Conference3-9#131 (-9.66)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
4· FOverall
Offense
43· CRating
50· CPer play
60· CConsistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
0· FRating
1· FPer play
2· FConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
53· CRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
1· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.026
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.239
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.006
Defensive EPA/play
+0.211
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.6%
Def Success Rate
52.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.217
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.106
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.10
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-0.27
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#131
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#122
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
recruiting 67 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense60th
Opp-adjusted defense0th
Offensive EPA/play51th
Defensive EPA/play1th
Offensive success rate54th
Explosiveness97th
Defensive havoc5th
Points per drive48th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UAB2025OA -0.033 / -0.164similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate4142Mississippi State2024OA +0.011 / -0.053similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4093Arizona State2022OA +0.027 / -0.075similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3564Oklahoma State2024OA +0.003 / -0.056similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA3505UCLA2019OA -0.012 / -0.052similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, passing offense337
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Florida Atlantic | 13-43 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 1 | vs William & Mary | 24-41 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Maryland | 21-56 | L | +26.5 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Georgia State | 42-41 | W | +19.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 4 | @ South Carolina | 20-56 | L | +22.5 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 5 | vs UTEP | 35-41 | L | +3.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 7 | @ UAB | 20-34 | L | +23.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Florida International | 15-34 | L | -14.5 | L | 63.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Rice | 56-23 | W | +16.5 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Western Kentucky | 7-59 | L | +16.5 | L | 72 | U |
| 11 | @ Middle Tennessee | 14-24 | L | +10.8 | W | 67 | U |
| 12 | vs Louisiana Tech | 26-21 | W | +3.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.005 | 54th | +0.173 | 3th |
| Red Zone | +0.074 | 63th | -0.044 | 53th |
| Third Down | +0.436 | 93th | +0.508 | 1th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.004 | 54th | +0.198 | 1th |
| First Half | +0.012 | 53th | +0.207 | 3th |
| Second Half | -0.003 | 57th | +0.136 | 4th |
| Early Downs | -0.031 | 47th | +0.071 | 14th |
| Passing Downs | +0.116 | 75th | +0.431 | 2th |
| Standard Downs | -0.052 | 32th | +0.057 | 16th |
| Goal to Go | -0.161 | 29th | -0.242 | 79th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.6%Rush 46.4%
Havoc/Game
9.7
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
387.1
Pts/Drive
2.10
3rd Down%
39.6%
3&Out%
23.4%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Charlotte | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 293 | 473 |
| Points / Game | 24.4 | 39.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 255 | 292 |
| Rushing | 81 | 130 |
| Passing | 146 | 136 |
| Penalty | 28 | 26 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 371 | 477 |
| Yards | 1,393 | 2,469 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 116.1 | 205.8 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 29 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 429 | 343 |
| Completions | 257 | 240 |
| Completion % | 59.9% | 70.0% |
| Yards | 3,252 | 3,337 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 9.7 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 137.82 | 173.38 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 800 | 820 |
| Yards | 4,645 | 5,806 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 7.1 |
| Yards / Game | 387.1 | 483.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 11 |
| Yards | 107 | 50 |
| Average | 7.6 | 4.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 44 | 13 |
| Yards | 838 | 271 |
| Average | 19.0 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 47 | 32 |
| Yards | 1,965 | 1,376 |
| Average | 41.8 | 43.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 14 |
| Yards | 7 | 158 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 9 | 10 |
| Lost | 7 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 81 | 76 |
| Yards | 714 | 647 |
| Yards / Game | 59.5 | 53.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:33 | 30:05 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 159 | 144 |
| Conversions | 63 | 64 |
| Conversion % | 39.6% | 44.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 25 |
| Conversions | 12 | 17 |
| Conversion % | 35.3% | 68.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 57 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 47 |
| Score % | 86.5% | 82.5% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 36 |
| TD % | 78.4% | 63.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 18 |
| Made | 3 | 14 |
| Pct | 60.0% | 77.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 55 |
| Made | 36 | 53 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 7 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.