Fourth Down Data
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OKST

Oklahoma State

CowboysBalanced
Big 12 Conference3-9#105 (-4.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

22· DOverall
Offense
43· CRating
50· CPer play
47· CConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
7· FPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
11· FRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.056
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.003
Defensive EPA/play
+0.135
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.132
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.09

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.52
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#105
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#87
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 52 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oklahoma State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
52th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
7th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
32th
Points per drive
34th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3582Arkansas2017OA -0.037 / -0.079similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3533Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, run defense3524Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate3525Charlotte2022OA +0.026 / -0.239similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA350

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Dakota State44-20W-9.5W54.5O
2vs Arkansas39-31W-9.0L60.25O
3@ Tulsa45-10W-19.0W63.5U
4vs Utah19-22L-2.5L52.5U
5@ Kansas State20-42L+5.0L56O
6vs West Virginia14-38L-3.0L64.5U
8@ BYU35-38L----
9@ Baylor28-38L+6.8L65O
10vs Arizona State21-42L+2.5L58.5O
11@ TCU13-38L+11.5L66.5U
13vs Texas Tech48-56L+3.5L67.5O
14@ Colorado0-52L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS1-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off12thRush Off82thRed Zone Off88th3rd Down Off25thPass Def23thRush Def5thRed Zone Def11th3rd Down Def13th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00442th+0.11110th
Red Zone+0.21988th+0.21311th
Third Down-0.01325th+0.28013th
No Garbage Time+0.03562th+0.1475th
First Half-0.02438th+0.10113th
Second Half+0.01247th+0.12210th
Early Downs+0.05178th+0.07512th
Passing Downs-0.17212th+0.10023th
Standard Downs+0.08682th+0.1175th
Goal to Go+0.60399th+0.3074th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.6%Rush 44.4%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
374.0
Pts/Drive
2.09
3rd Down%
35.4%
3&Out%
25.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Oklahoma State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOklahoma StateOpponents
Scoring
Points326427
Points / Game27.235.6
First Downs
Total245300
Rushing81136
Passing145149
Penalty1915
Rushing
Attempts358477
Yards1,3412,580
Yards / Carry3.75.4
Yards / Game111.8215.0
Touchdowns1928
Passing
Attempts449405
Completions267254
Completion %59.5%62.7%
Yards3,1473,427
Yards / Attempt7.08.5
Touchdowns2126
Interceptions1712
Passer Rating126.20149.05
Total Offense
Plays807882
Yards4,4886,007
Yards / Play5.66.8
Yards / Game374.0500.6
Punt Returns
Returns1510
Yards8864
Average5.96.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4521
Yards837401
Average18.619.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5540
Yards2,4541,692
Average44.642.3
Interception Returns
Returns1217
Yards214120
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles118
Lost63
Penalties
Penalties6064
Yards521587
Yards / Game43.448.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:0332:56
Third Downs
Attempts161172
Conversions5779
Conversion %35.4%45.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2630
Conversions1716
Conversion %65.4%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips4452
Scores (TD + FG)3942
Score %88.6%80.8%
Touchdowns3034
TD %68.2%65.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1718
Made1212
Pct70.6%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3555
Made3455
Pct97.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts61
Made50
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →