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MTSU
Middle Tennessee
Blue RaidersBalancedConference USA3-6#116 (-7.36)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
10· FOverall
Offense
36· DRating
37· DPer play
50· CConsistency
33· DBig plays
Defense
9· FRating
26· DPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.016
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.033
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.027
Defensive EPA/play
+0.080
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
50.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.106
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.87
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.32
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#84
market 32 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile
Peer Context
Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense33th
Opp-adjusted defense18th
Offensive EPA/play38th
Defensive EPA/play27th
Offensive success rate50th
Explosiveness34th
Defensive havoc23th
Points per drive25th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Maryland2024OA -0.026 / -0.007similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3882UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, offensive success rate3813South Florida2020OA -0.047 / -0.026similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, run defense3714Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3695North Texas2019OA -0.041 / -0.097similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate366
2020 Schedule & Results
9 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Army | 0-42 | L | +3.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Troy | 14-47 | L | +7.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 4 | @ UTSA | 35-37 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs Western Kentucky | 17-20 | L | +7.0 | W | 54 | U |
| 6 | @ Florida International | 31-28 | W | +4.0 | W | 56.5 | O |
| 7 | vs North Texas | 35-52 | L | -6.5 | L | 72 | O |
| 8 | @ Rice | 40-34 | W | +3.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Marshall | 14-42 | L | +23.5 | L | 56.75 | U |
| 12 | @ Troy | 20-17 | W | +12.5 | W | 59.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-4
55.6%
O/U Record
4-5
44.4%
Straight Up
3-6
33.3%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.039 | 31th | +0.082 | 26th |
| Red Zone | -0.046 | 41th | +0.264 | 5th |
| Third Down | +0.131 | 59th | +0.338 | 10th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.041 | 30th | +0.086 | 26th |
| First Half | -0.034 | 34th | +0.023 | 47th |
| Second Half | -0.044 | 32th | +0.150 | 13th |
| Early Downs | -0.132 | 7th | +0.035 | 36th |
| Passing Downs | +0.154 | 74th | +0.095 | 38th |
| Standard Downs | -0.140 | 7th | +0.076 | 19th |
| Goal to Go | -0.016 | 43th | +0.413 | 6th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.9%Rush 51.1%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
15.5%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
365.9
Pts/Drive
1.87
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
23.0%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 9 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 206 | 319 |
| Points / Game | 22.9 | 35.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 182 | 208 |
| Rushing | 77 | 105 |
| Passing | 86 | 92 |
| Penalty | 19 | 11 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 325 | 382 |
| Yards | 1,219 | 1,997 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 135.4 | 221.9 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 311 | 281 |
| Completions | 205 | 167 |
| Completion % | 65.9% | 59.4% |
| Yards | 2,074 | 2,017 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 129.30 | 136.34 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 636 | 663 |
| Yards | 3,293 | 4,014 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 6.1 |
| Yards / Game | 365.9 | 446.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 14 |
| Yards | 18 | 72 |
| Average | 2.6 | 5.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 33 |
| Yards | 395 | 669 |
| Average | 18.8 | 20.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 34 |
| Yards | 1,961 | 1,434 |
| Average | 43.6 | 42.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 10 |
| Yards | 138 | 148 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 11 |
| Lost | 6 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 51 | 50 |
| Yards | 470 | 433 |
| Yards / Game | 52.2 | 48.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:33 | 30:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 129 | 140 |
| Conversions | 55 | 75 |
| Conversion % | 42.6% | 53.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 10 |
| Conversions | 6 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 27 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 22 | 32 |
| Score % | 81.5% | 94.1% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 27 |
| TD % | 70.4% | 79.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 13 | 14 |
| Made | 7 | 10 |
| Pct | 53.8% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 39 |
| Made | 23 | 39 |
| Pct | 95.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.