Fourth Down Data
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COLO

Colorado

BuffaloesBalanced
Big 12 Conference3-9#92 (-6.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
43· CRating
34· DPer play
9· FConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
18· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
54· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.053
Defensive EPA/play
+0.070
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.6%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.123
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.066
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.59
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#104
model 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#31
recruiting 61 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
30th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
8th
Explosiveness
24th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
28th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Nebraska2022OA +0.012 / -0.072similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, rushing offense4352Kansas State2020OA -0.003 / -0.042similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate4103Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3694Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, run defense3675Hawai'i2026OA -0.078 / -0.040similar: run defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate367

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Georgia Tech20-27L----
2vs Delaware31-7W-23.5W42.5U
3@ Houston20-36L----
4vs Wyoming37-20W-12.0W45.5O
5vs BYU21-24L+6.5W49.5U
6@ TCU21-35L+13.5L57U
7vs Iowa State24-17W+3.0W52U
9@ Utah7-53L+14.0L49O
10vs Arizona17-52L+4.0L52.5O
11@ West Virginia22-29L+6.5L53U
13vs Arizona State17-42L+7.0L47.5O
14@ Kansas State14-24L+17.0W50.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS3-7
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off69thRush Off2thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off50thPass Def54thRush Def14thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def54th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08323th+0.03929th
Red Zone-0.02744th-0.00747th
Third Down+0.08050th+0.04554th
No Garbage Time-0.06031th+0.07818th
First Half-0.07024th+0.02733th
Second Half-0.09714th+0.05127th
Early Downs-0.1941th+0.05718th
Passing Downs+0.06669th-0.04354th
Standard Downs-0.1882th+0.08114th
Goal to Go-0.07039th-0.01850th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.4%Rush 54.6%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
328.4
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
38.4%
3&Out%
24.6%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColoradoOpponents
Scoring
Points251366
Points / Game20.930.5
First Downs
Total208260
Rushing88127
Passing97109
Penalty2324
Rushing
Attempts430509
Yards1,5072,670
Yards / Carry3.55.2
Yards / Game125.6222.5
Touchdowns1525
Passing
Attempts358323
Completions210179
Completion %58.7%55.4%
Yards2,4342,438
Yards / Attempt6.87.5
Touchdowns1718
Interceptions116
Passer Rating125.29133.50
Total Offense
Plays788832
Yards3,9415,108
Yards / Play5.06.1
Yards / Game328.4425.7
Punt Returns
Returns1126
Yards79247
Average7.29.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns307
Yards686139
Average22.919.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6744
Yards2,8391,878
Average42.442.7
Interception Returns
Returns611
Yards50183
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1221
Lost69
Penalties
Penalties6872
Yards599680
Yards / Game49.956.7
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5031:10
Third Downs
Attempts177159
Conversions6856
Conversion %38.4%35.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2031
Conversions719
Conversion %35.0%61.3%
Red Zone
Trips3246
Scores (TD + FG)2838
Score %87.5%82.6%
Touchdowns2029
TD %62.5%63.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1226
Made920
Pct75.0%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3142
Made3042
Pct96.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →