Fourth Down Data
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VAN

Vanderbilt

CommodoresBalanced
Southeastern Conference2-10#124 (-7.40)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

9· FOverall
Offense
12· FRating
8· FPer play
17· DConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
8· FRating
13· FPer play
6· FConsistency
Situational
42· CRed-zone O
68· CRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.121
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.130
Defensive EPA/play
+0.094
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
50.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.224
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.72
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#124
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#130
model 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#57
recruiting 67 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Vanderbilt ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
7th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
8th
Defensive EPA/play
13th
Offensive success rate
39th
Explosiveness
24th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
12th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTEP2017OA -0.268 / -0.112similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, run defense3792UL Monroe2020OA -0.067 / -0.040similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA3743Colorado State2025OA -0.128 / -0.100similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3674Kansas2021OA -0.047 / -0.174similar: run defense, passing offense, offensive success rate3635Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA362

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Hawai'i35-28W-17.5L55.5O
1vs Alabama A&M47-13W----
2@ Wake Forest20-36L+10.0L56P
3@ UNLV37-40L-4.5L59O
4vs Kentucky28-45L+13.5L50O
5vs Missouri21-38L+13.5L54.5O
6@ Florida14-38L+18.0L52P
7vs Georgia20-37L+31.5W56O
9@ Ole Miss7-33L+24.5L63.5U
10vs Auburn15-31L+12.5L49.25U
11@ South Carolina6-47L+13.5L58U
13@ Tennessee24-48L+27.0W56.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-9
18.2%
O/U Record
6-3-2
66.7%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS2-7
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off13thRush Off39thRed Zone Off43th3rd Down Off2thPass Def33thRush Def13thRed Zone Def69th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07019th+0.08915th
Red Zone-0.03543th-0.10769th
Third Down-0.1562th+0.29923th
No Garbage Time-0.11010th+0.08315th
First Half-0.2000th+0.07126th
Second Half+0.05470th+0.10914th
Early Downs+0.01571th+0.03321th
Passing Downs-0.11713th+0.09333th
Standard Downs-0.04139th+0.08713th
Goal to Go-0.11526th-0.21879th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.8%Rush 47.2%
Havoc/Game
11.7
Havoc Rate
16.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
11.6
Yards/Game
318.9
Pts/Drive
1.53
3rd Down%
33.1%
3&Out%
23.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Vanderbilt vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVanderbiltOpponents
Scoring
Points274434
Points / Game22.836.2
First Downs
Total204269
Rushing69102
Passing108151
Penalty2716
Rushing
Attempts349413
Yards1,1432,104
Yards / Carry3.35.1
Yards / Game95.3175.3
Touchdowns1023
Passing
Attempts390421
Completions217290
Completion %55.6%68.9%
Yards2,6843,355
Yards / Attempt6.98.0
Touchdowns2326
Interceptions1212
Passer Rating126.76150.50
Total Offense
Plays739834
Yards3,8275,459
Yards / Play5.26.5
Yards / Game318.9454.9
Punt Returns
Returns1516
Yards145160
Average9.710.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2725
Yards545544
Average20.221.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5946
Yards2,7321,856
Average46.340.3
Interception Returns
Returns1212
Yards132270
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1812
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties5987
Yards510742
Yards / Game42.561.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4431:13
Third Downs
Attempts157164
Conversions5277
Conversion %33.1%47.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2714
Conversions810
Conversion %29.6%71.4%
Red Zone
Trips3453
Scores (TD + FG)2649
Score %76.5%92.5%
Touchdowns2230
TD %64.7%56.6%
Field Goals
Attempts1023
Made720
Pct70.0%87.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3051
Made2950
Pct96.7%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts63
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →