Fourth Down Data
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ULM

UL Monroe

WarhawksPass-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference0-10#129 (-14.74)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

0· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
5· FPer play
7· FConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
0· FRating
15· DPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
6· FRed-zone O
11· FRed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
0· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.214
Defensive EPA/play
+0.133
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.8%
Def Success Rate
49.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.346
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.135
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.81
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.80
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.25
own return game
Return Defense
-0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#129
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#108
market 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 91 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
2th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
5th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
16th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
4th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida International2022OA -0.160 / -0.147similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense4372Florida International2023OA -0.096 / -0.084similar: pass defense, rushing offense, turnover rate4093Massachusetts2025OA -0.185 / -0.202similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, rushing offense3764Vanderbilt2023OA -0.121 / -0.060similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3755Rice2018OA -0.165 / -0.155similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, turnover rate373

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2@ Army7-37L+19.0L55.5U
3vs Texas State17-38L+5.5L61U
4vs UTEP6-31L-10.0L50U
5vs Georgia Southern30-35L+20.0W49O
6@ Liberty7-40L+19.0L61U
8@ South Alabama14-38L+14.5L56U
9vs App State13-31L+32.0W55.5U
10@ Georgia State34-52L+18.0P58.5O
13vs Louisiana20-70L+28.5L54.5O
14@ Arkansas State15-48L+21.0L69.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-7-1
22.2%
O/U Record
3-7
30.0%
Straight Up
0-10
0.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS0-4
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LWPLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off23thRed Zone Off6th3rd Down Off2thPass Def9thRush Def40thRed Zone Def11th3rd Down Def0th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1279th+0.10617th
Red Zone-0.3306th+0.19511th
Third Down-0.3952th+0.7250th
No Garbage Time-0.1906th+0.13713th
First Half-0.1759th+0.2115th
Second Half-0.07921th-0.02764th
Early Downs-0.01148th-0.06376th
Passing Downs-0.2208th+0.2449th
Standard Downs-0.06723th+0.03740th
Goal to Go+0.14264th+0.04651th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 60.9%Rush 39.1%
Havoc/Game
9.4
Havoc Rate
13.3%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
9.9
Yards/Game
305.7
Pts/Drive
1.16
3rd Down%
25.6%
3&Out%
38.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUL MonroeOpponents
Scoring
Points163420
Points / Game16.342.0
First Downs
Total165219
Rushing44130
Passing10776
Penalty1413
Rushing
Attempts247461
Yards7632,493
Yards / Carry3.15.4
Yards / Game76.3249.3
Touchdowns929
Passing
Attempts384217
Completions224126
Completion %58.3%58.1%
Yards2,2942,153
Yards / Attempt6.09.9
Touchdowns1420
Interceptions124
Passer Rating114.30168.13
Total Offense
Plays631678
Yards3,0574,646
Yards / Play4.86.9
Yards / Game305.7464.6
Punt Returns
Returns616
Yards30193
Average5.012.1
Touchdowns03
Kickoff Returns
Returns4218
Yards758315
Average18.017.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5327
Yards2,0481,096
Average38.640.6
Interception Returns
Returns412
Yards111314
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1910
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties4853
Yards437478
Yards / Game43.747.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1632:44
Third Downs
Attempts133142
Conversions3481
Conversion %25.6%57.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3319
Conversions1713
Conversion %51.5%68.4%
Red Zone
Trips3241
Scores (TD + FG)2135
Score %65.6%85.4%
Touchdowns1932
TD %59.4%78.0%
Field Goals
Attempts513
Made210
Pct40.0%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2056
Made1554
Pct75.0%96.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →