← All Teams
CSU
Colorado State
RamsBalancedPac-12 Conference2-10#124 (-15.31)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
9· FOverall
Offense
21· DRating
12· FPer play
16· DConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
13· FPer play
30· DConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.128
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.100
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.123
Defensive EPA/play
+0.094
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.217
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.58
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#124
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#110
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 45 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense7th
Opp-adjusted defense13th
Offensive EPA/play13th
Defensive EPA/play13th
Offensive success rate23th
Explosiveness9th
Defensive havoc12th
Points per drive11th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1New Mexico2018OA -0.119 / -0.070similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3902Vanderbilt2023OA -0.121 / -0.060similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3673UTEP2017OA -0.268 / -0.112similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3464Oklahoma State2024OA +0.003 / -0.056similar: turnover rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3355Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, offensive EPA324
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Washington | 21-38 | L | +21.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Northern Colorado | 21-17 | W | -34.8 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 4 | vs UTSA | 16-17 | L | +4.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Washington State | 3-20 | L | -5.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 6 | @ San Diego State | 24-45 | L | +6.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Fresno State | 49-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Hawai'i | 19-31 | L | -2.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Wyoming | 0-28 | L | +5.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 11 | vs UNLV | 10-42 | L | +4.5 | L | 62 | U |
| 12 | @ New Mexico | 17-20 | L | +17.5 | W | 36.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Boise State | 21-49 | L | +17.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 14 | vs Air Force | 21-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
2-10
16.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.104 | 14th | +0.076 | 16th |
| Red Zone | +0.279 | 96th | +0.019 | 43th |
| Third Down | -0.193 | 10th | +0.205 | 17th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.134 | 11th | +0.099 | 13th |
| First Half | -0.189 | 7th | +0.152 | 5th |
| Second Half | -0.031 | 41th | -0.011 | 48th |
| Early Downs | -0.043 | 33th | -0.071 | 74th |
| Passing Downs | -0.226 | 7th | +0.185 | 5th |
| Standard Downs | -0.030 | 34th | +0.025 | 39th |
| Goal to Go | +0.327 | 92th | +0.054 | 41th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.0%Rush 48.0%
Havoc/Game
10.3
Havoc Rate
14.5%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
324.2
Pts/Drive
1.58
3rd Down%
32.9%
3&Out%
32.5%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 222 | 370 |
| Points / Game | 18.5 | 30.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 220 | 256 |
| Rushing | 80 | 115 |
| Passing | 114 | 117 |
| Penalty | 26 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 363 | 491 |
| Yards | 1,299 | 2,459 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 108.3 | 204.9 |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 30 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 394 | 325 |
| Completions | 243 | 205 |
| Completion % | 61.7% | 63.1% |
| Yards | 2,591 | 2,653 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.6 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 123.39 | 145.00 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 757 | 816 |
| Yards | 3,890 | 5,112 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 6.3 |
| Yards / Game | 324.2 | 426.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 19 |
| Yards | 212 | 110 |
| Average | 14.1 | 5.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 12 |
| Yards | 319 | 272 |
| Average | 18.8 | 22.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 47 |
| Yards | 2,811 | 2,089 |
| Average | 47.6 | 44.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 12 |
| Yards | 69 | 127 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 12 |
| Lost | 8 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 70 | 80 |
| Yards | 675 | 712 |
| Yards / Game | 56.3 | 59.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:49 | 33:10 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 158 | 157 |
| Conversions | 52 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 32.9% | 46.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 19 |
| Conversions | 14 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 46.7% | 68.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 31 | 44 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 26 | 38 |
| Score % | 83.9% | 86.4% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 30 |
| TD % | 71.0% | 68.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 11 |
| Made | 5 | 11 |
| Pct | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 47 |
| Made | 25 | 47 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.