Fourth Down Data
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NEB

Nebraska

CornhuskersBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#98 (-4.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

28· DOverall
Offense
34· DRating
38· DPer play
42· CConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
25· DRating
32· DPer play
31· DConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.072
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.055
Defensive EPA/play
+0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
47.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.080
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.59
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#98
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#93
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#24
recruiting 74 spots higher
19 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Nebraska ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
39th
Defensive EPA/play
32th
Offensive success rate
38th
Explosiveness
22th
Defensive havoc
12th
Points per drive
31th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate4352Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: run defense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3633Air Force2024OA -0.008 / -0.002similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3564Stanford2021OA -0.048 / -0.069similar: havoc rate, passing offense, turnover rate3555New Mexico2018OA -0.119 / -0.070similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense352

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Northwestern28-31L-11.0L51.5O
1vs North Dakota38-17W-30.3L62.5U
2vs Georgia Southern42-45L-23.5L62.5O
3vs Oklahoma14-49L+11.0L64.5U
5vs Indiana35-21W-3.0L50.5U
6@ Rutgers14-13W----
7@ Purdue37-43L+14.0W56.5O
9vs Illinois9-26L+7.5L50.5U
10vs Minnesota13-20L+16.0W46.5U
11@ Michigan3-34L+29.5L49.5U
12vs Wisconsin14-15L+10.5W38.5O
13@ Iowa24-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off28thRush Off41thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off22thPass Def72thRush Def14thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def84th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05936th+0.02133th
Red Zone+0.19590th+0.2327th
Third Down-0.08422th-0.10184th
No Garbage Time-0.05638th+0.02036th
First Half-0.04539th+0.05921th
Second Half-0.07432th-0.01747th
Early Downs-0.03944th+0.03720th
Passing Downs-0.09928th-0.06972th
Standard Downs-0.03641th+0.06414th
Goal to Go+0.22180th+0.07233th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.8
Yards/Game
344.2
Pts/Drive
1.79
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
25.7%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Nebraska vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNebraskaOpponents
Scoring
Points271331
Points / Game22.627.6
First Downs
Total216277
Rushing84133
Passing111129
Penalty2115
Rushing
Attempts420499
Yards1,4802,269
Yards / Carry3.54.5
Yards / Game123.3189.1
Touchdowns1722
Passing
Attempts341408
Completions205243
Completion %60.1%59.6%
Yards2,6502,704
Yards / Attempt7.86.6
Touchdowns1718
Interceptions139
Passer Rating134.22125.38
Total Offense
Plays761907
Yards4,1304,973
Yards / Play5.45.5
Yards / Game344.2414.4
Punt Returns
Returns521
Yards77198
Average15.49.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2615
Yards444270
Average17.118.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7060
Yards3,0462,397
Average43.540.0
Interception Returns
Returns913
Yards40120
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1313
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties6568
Yards525623
Yards / Game43.851.9
Time of Possession
Per Game26:4433:06
Third Downs
Attempts165177
Conversions6675
Conversion %40.0%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts715
Conversions310
Conversion %42.9%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips3341
Scores (TD + FG)2937
Score %87.9%90.2%
Touchdowns2227
TD %66.7%65.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1321
Made916
Pct69.2%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3539
Made3437
Pct97.1%94.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →