Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
AF

Air Force

FalconsRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference5-7#110 (-5.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

18· DOverall
Offense
17· DRating
40· CPer play
39· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
49· CPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.002
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.009
Defensive EPA/play
-0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.007
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.250
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.82

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.70
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#99
market 11 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 30 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Air Force ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
37th
Opp-adjusted defense
51th
Offensive EPA/play
40th
Defensive EPA/play
49th
Offensive success rate
36th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
25th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wyoming2021OA +0.012 / -0.027similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3692Nebraska2022OA +0.012 / -0.072similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3563Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3494Northern Illinois2019OA -0.044 / -0.008similar: run defense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3345Nebraska2019OA +0.022 / +0.042similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense321

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Merrimack21-6W-28.5L47.5U
2vs San José State7-17L-6.0L46U
3@ Baylor3-31L+16.5L41.5U
5@ Wyoming19-31L-4.0L34O
6vs Navy7-34L+9.5L37O
7@ New Mexico37-52L+6.5L54O
8vs Colorado State13-21L+7.0L46U
10@ Army3-20L+22.5W41.5U
11vs Fresno State36-28W+10.5W41O
12vs Oregon State28-0W+4.0W45U
13@ Nevada22-19W+3.5W45U
14@ San Diego State31-20W-3.5W43.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off29thRush Off62thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off63thPass Def90thRush Def17thRed Zone Def35th3rd Down Def52th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.00348th-0.00954th
Red Zone+0.16981th+0.07335th
Third Down+0.15563th+0.07152th
No Garbage Time-0.02634th+0.02138th
First Half+0.02759th+0.00343th
Second Half-0.02234th-0.02160th
Early Downs-0.05826th+0.01432th
Passing Downs-0.04429th-0.17390th
Standard Downs+0.02562th+0.07417th
Goal to Go+0.45496th+0.02543th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 17.0%Rush 83.0%
Havoc/Game
9.3
Havoc Rate
15.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
313.8
Pts/Drive
1.82
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
19.3%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Air Force vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAir ForceOpponents
Scoring
Points227279
Points / Game18.923.3
First Downs
Total216204
Rushing16089
Passing39102
Penalty1713
Rushing
Attempts673403
Yards2,6881,841
Yards / Carry4.04.6
Yards / Game224.0153.4
Touchdowns2423
Passing
Attempts138289
Completions62187
Completion %44.9%64.7%
Yards1,0772,262
Yards / Attempt7.87.8
Touchdowns512
Interceptions104
Passer Rating107.95141.39
Total Offense
Plays811692
Yards3,7654,103
Yards / Play4.65.9
Yards / Game313.8341.9
Punt Returns
Returns711
Yards42145
Average6.013.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns519
Yards73365
Average14.619.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4543
Yards1,9911,955
Average44.245.5
Interception Returns
Returns410
Yards80149
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1517
Lost58
Penalties
Penalties3863
Yards346581
Yards / Game28.848.4
Time of Possession
Per Game33:5126:02
Third Downs
Attempts182140
Conversions7852
Conversion %42.9%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3627
Conversions2315
Conversion %63.9%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips3636
Scores (TD + FG)3232
Score %88.9%88.9%
Touchdowns2424
TD %66.7%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1513
Made910
Pct60.0%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2432
Made2431
Pct100.0%96.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts64
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →