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WYO
Wyoming
CowboysRun-HeavyMountain West Conference7-6#82 (-1.61)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
39· DOverall
Offense
36· DRating
47· CPer play
31· DConsistency
73· BBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
59· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.003
Defensive EPA/play
-0.040
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.2%
Def Success Rate
44.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.043
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.229
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.03
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.51
own return game
Return Defense
-0.25
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#82
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#53
market 29 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 10 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wyoming ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense52th
Opp-adjusted defense35th
Offensive EPA/play47th
Defensive EPA/play59th
Offensive success rate33th
Explosiveness74th
Defensive havoc15th
Points per drive42th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1New Mexico State2022OA -0.054 / -0.076similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3842Air Force2024OA -0.008 / -0.002similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3693Northern Illinois2023OA +0.012 / -0.014similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate3404Georgia Tech2017OA +0.039 / +0.096similar: rushing offense, pass defense, run defense3315Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, TD drive rate325
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Montana State | 19-16 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Northern Illinois | 50-43 | W | -4.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Ball State | 45-12 | W | -7.0 | W | 53 | O |
| 4 | @ UConn | 24-22 | W | -31.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Air Force | 14-24 | L | +6.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Fresno State | 0-17 | L | +3.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 8 | vs New Mexico | 3-14 | L | -19.5 | L | 40.5 | U |
| 9 | @ San José State | 21-27 | L | +3.0 | L | 41 | O |
| 10 | vs Colorado State | 31-17 | W | +14.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Boise State | 13-23 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Utah State | 44-17 | W | +5.5 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Hawai'i | 14-38 | L | -10.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 17 | vs Kent State | 52-38 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.008 | 44th | -0.036 | 58th |
| Red Zone | +0.063 | 67th | +0.120 | 20th |
| Third Down | +0.202 | 72th | +0.110 | 41th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.003 | 47th | -0.048 | 64th |
| First Half | -0.033 | 35th | -0.034 | 60th |
| Second Half | +0.015 | 56th | -0.039 | 59th |
| Early Downs | -0.018 | 46th | -0.068 | 71th |
| Passing Downs | -0.017 | 44th | +0.055 | 32th |
| Standard Downs | -0.003 | 48th | -0.089 | 79th |
| Goal to Go | +0.372 | 95th | +0.076 | 37th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.4%Rush 64.6%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
14.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
374.4
Pts/Drive
2.03
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
21.5%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Wyoming vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wyoming | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 330 | 308 |
| Points / Game | 25.4 | 23.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 241 | 263 |
| Rushing | 132 | 121 |
| Passing | 96 | 117 |
| Penalty | 13 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 542 | 514 |
| Yards | 2,752 | 2,349 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| Yards / Game | 211.7 | 180.7 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 297 | 378 |
| Completions | 162 | 220 |
| Completion % | 54.5% | 58.2% |
| Yards | 2,115 | 2,467 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 122.95 | 126.07 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 839 | 892 |
| Yards | 4,867 | 4,816 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 374.4 | 370.5 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 17 |
| Yards | 46 | 146 |
| Average | 3.8 | 8.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 32 |
| Yards | 461 | 643 |
| Average | 23.1 | 20.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 58 |
| Yards | 2,466 | 2,505 |
| Average | 42.5 | 43.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 12 |
| Yards | 138 | 145 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 9 |
| Lost | 6 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 62 |
| Yards | 584 | 511 |
| Yards / Game | 44.9 | 39.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:56 | 30:04 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 172 | 188 |
| Conversions | 75 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 43.6% | 42.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 25 |
| Conversions | 7 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 35.0% | 32.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 39 |
| Score % | 86.5% | 86.7% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 28 |
| TD % | 62.2% | 62.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 23 |
| Made | 10 | 16 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 69.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 33 |
| Made | 40 | 32 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 5 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.