Fourth Down Data
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NIU

Northern Illinois

HuskiesBalanced
Mountain West Conference7-6#82 (-2.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
32· DRating
49· CPer play
26· DConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
75· BPer play
71· BConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
43· C3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.010
Defensive EPA/play
-0.051
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
43.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.061
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.074
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.91

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#82
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#57
market 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 6 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
59th
Opp-adjusted defense
44th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
76th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive EPA3412Wyoming2021OA +0.012 / -0.027similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate3403Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, run defense3374Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, havoc rate3365Wisconsin2023OA -0.012 / +0.055similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate332

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Boston College27-24W+8.5W50.5O
2vs Southern Illinois11-14L-7.3L59U
3@ Nebraska11-35L+11.0L43O
4vs Tulsa14-22L-4.0L54.5U
5@ Toledo33-35L+13.0W47.5O
6@ Akron55-14W-6.5W43O
7vs Ohio23-13W+6.5W44.5U
8vs Eastern Michigan20-13W-12.5L45.5U
10@ Central Michigan31-37L-9.0L43.5U
11vs Ball State17-20L-4.5W56.5U
12vs Western Michigan24-0W----
13@ Kent State37-27W-18.5L44O
17vs Arkansas State21-19W+2.5W54U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off61thRed Zone Off27th3rd Down Off43thPass Def76thRush Def66thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02859th-0.04673th
Red Zone-0.09627th+0.06530th
Third Down+0.16343th+0.20241th
No Garbage Time+0.02155th-0.05176th
First Half+0.02352th-0.03268th
Second Half+0.03363th-0.06077th
Early Downs+0.00264th-0.07267th
Passing Downs+0.05551th-0.02376th
Standard Downs+0.01461th-0.05966th
Goal to Go+0.02249th+0.20124th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.9%Rush 56.1%
Havoc/Game
10.2
Havoc Rate
16.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
369.4
Pts/Drive
1.91
3rd Down%
41.6%
3&Out%
16.4%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthern IllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points324273
Points / Game24.921.0
First Downs
Total245233
Rushing106111
Passing114103
Penalty2519
Rushing
Attempts467460
Yards2,3351,929
Yards / Carry5.04.2
Yards / Game179.6148.4
Touchdowns2320
Passing
Attempts366352
Completions211200
Completion %57.7%56.8%
Yards2,4672,225
Yards / Attempt6.76.3
Touchdowns1513
Interceptions910
Passer Rating122.88116.42
Total Offense
Plays833812
Yards4,8024,154
Yards / Play5.85.1
Yards / Game369.4319.5
Punt Returns
Returns128
Yards10429
Average8.73.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2643
Yards403754
Average15.517.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5272
Yards2,1102,815
Average40.639.1
Interception Returns
Returns109
Yards9240
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1514
Lost95
Penalties
Penalties5880
Yards517729
Yards / Game39.856.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3427:50
Third Downs
Attempts173184
Conversions7275
Conversion %41.6%40.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2012
Conversions107
Conversion %50.0%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips3945
Scores (TD + FG)3138
Score %79.5%84.4%
Touchdowns2026
TD %51.3%57.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2219
Made1314
Pct59.1%73.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3131
Made3131
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts82
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →