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WIS
Wisconsin
BadgersBalancedBig Ten Conference7-6#45 (+3.50)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
67· COverall
Offense
42· CRating
32· DPer play
56· CConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
84· BRating
77· BPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
23· D3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.055
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.037
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
45.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.014
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.87
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.70
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.44
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#36
market 9 higher
Recruiting Rank
#27
recruiting 18 spots higher
18 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense43th
Opp-adjusted defense78th
Offensive EPA/play32th
Defensive EPA/play78th
Offensive success rate56th
Explosiveness27th
Defensive havoc52th
Points per drive30th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, takeaway rate3742Southern Miss2017OA -0.034 / -0.038similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3473Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, rushing offense3474Western Kentucky2020OA -0.056 / +0.022similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3365Vanderbilt2026OA -0.037 / -0.005similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense335
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Buffalo | 38-17 | W | -28.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 2 | @ Washington State | 22-31 | L | -5.5 | L | 58 | U |
| 3 | vs Georgia Southern | 35-14 | W | -5.5 | W | 53.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Purdue | 38-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Rutgers | 24-13 | W | -13.0 | L | 44 | U |
| 7 | vs Iowa | 6-15 | L | -10.0 | L | 36.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Illinois | 25-21 | W | -2.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Ohio State | 10-24 | L | +14.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Indiana | 14-20 | L | -9.5 | L | 45 | U |
| 11 | vs Northwestern | 10-24 | L | -11.0 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Nebraska | 24-17 | W | -4.5 | W | 37 | O |
| 13 | @ Minnesota | 28-14 | W | -2.0 | W | 42 | P |
| 18 | @ LSU | 31-35 | L | +9.0 | W | 57 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-7-1
41.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS5-6
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.037 | 31th | -0.052 | 75th |
| Red Zone | +0.013 | 53th | +0.026 | 42th |
| Third Down | +0.052 | 23th | +0.269 | 28th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.029 | 33th | -0.043 | 72th |
| First Half | -0.081 | 19th | -0.008 | 59th |
| Second Half | +0.002 | 47th | -0.106 | 85th |
| Early Downs | +0.011 | 67th | -0.135 | 89th |
| Passing Downs | -0.046 | 26th | +0.048 | 42th |
| Standard Downs | -0.033 | 42th | -0.105 | 86th |
| Goal to Go | +0.152 | 78th | -0.285 | 84th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 50.8%Rush 49.2%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
18.4%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
381.2
Pts/Drive
1.87
3rd Down%
44.2%
3&Out%
19.0%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Wisconsin | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 305 | 262 |
| Points / Game | 23.5 | 20.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 261 | 241 |
| Rushing | 113 | 96 |
| Passing | 133 | 128 |
| Penalty | 15 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 454 | 457 |
| Yards | 2,093 | 1,756 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 161.0 | 135.1 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 469 | 417 |
| Completions | 281 | 254 |
| Completion % | 59.9% | 60.9% |
| Yards | 2,862 | 2,716 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.1 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 13 |
| Passer Rating | 118.89 | 124.42 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 923 | 874 |
| Yards | 4,955 | 4,472 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 381.2 | 344.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 13 |
| Yards | 194 | 61 |
| Average | 8.8 | 4.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 27 |
| Yards | 531 | 529 |
| Average | 21.2 | 19.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 74 |
| Yards | 2,602 | 3,094 |
| Average | 41.3 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 13 | 5 |
| Yards | 171 | 140 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 11 |
| Lost | 12 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 73 |
| Yards | 625 | 620 |
| Yards / Game | 48.1 | 47.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:17 | 30:39 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 199 | 188 |
| Conversions | 88 | 74 |
| Conversion % | 44.2% | 39.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 22 |
| Conversions | 5 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 25.0% | 31.8% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 36 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 39 | 29 |
| Score % | 84.8% | 80.6% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 23 |
| TD % | 63.0% | 63.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 14 |
| Made | 15 | 10 |
| Pct | 78.9% | 71.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 33 |
| Made | 34 | 32 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 0 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.