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WKU
Western Kentucky
HilltoppersBalancedConference USA5-7#110 (-6.18)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
15· DOverall
Offense
5· FRating
14· FPer play
14· FConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
70· BPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
24· DRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.022
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.128
Defensive EPA/play
-0.043
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.085
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.073
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.52
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.64
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.31
own return game
Return Defense
-1.13
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#73
market 37 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 72 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense4th
Opp-adjusted defense73th
Offensive EPA/play14th
Defensive EPA/play71th
Offensive success rate16th
Explosiveness30th
Defensive havoc68th
Points per drive12th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive EPA3812Wyoming2018OA -0.118 / +0.091similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3573Miami (OH)2022OA -0.109 / -0.028similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3544Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3525Louisiana Tech2024OA -0.068 / +0.030similar: pass defense, turnover rate, takeaway rate340
2020 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | @ Louisville | 21-35 | L | +11.5 | L | 57.75 | U |
| 3 | vs Liberty | 24-30 | L | -14.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 5 | @ Middle Tennessee | 20-17 | W | -7.0 | L | 54 | U |
| 6 | vs Marshall | 14-38 | L | +7.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 7 | @ UAB | 14-37 | L | +13.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Chattanooga | 13-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ BYU | 10-41 | L | +28.5 | L | 52 | U |
| 10 | @ Florida Atlantic | 6-10 | L | +7.0 | W | 40 | U |
| 11 | vs Southern Miss | 10-7 | W | -5.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Florida International | 38-21 | W | -7.0 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Charlotte | 37-19 | W | +2.0 | W | 46 | O |
| 17 | @ Georgia State | 21-39 | L | +4.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-8
27.3%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS2-5
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.104 | 12th | -0.050 | 75th |
| Red Zone | -0.117 | 24th | +0.002 | 47th |
| Third Down | -0.151 | 16th | +0.273 | 20th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.133 | 12th | -0.041 | 71th |
| First Half | -0.132 | 16th | +0.083 | 29th |
| Second Half | -0.076 | 25th | -0.197 | 95th |
| Early Downs | -0.047 | 34th | -0.146 | 92th |
| Passing Downs | -0.147 | 16th | +0.014 | 61th |
| Standard Downs | -0.081 | 16th | -0.087 | 82th |
| Goal to Go | -0.166 | 24th | -0.088 | 70th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.7%Rush 51.3%
Havoc/Game
14.3
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
12.2
Yards/Game
290.3
Pts/Drive
1.52
3rd Down%
32.3%
3&Out%
28.0%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 12 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 228 | 304 |
| Points / Game | 19.0 | 25.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 196 | 232 |
| Rushing | 97 | 120 |
| Passing | 89 | 95 |
| Penalty | 10 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 389 | 493 |
| Yards | 1,512 | 2,055 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 126.0 | 171.3 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 369 | 335 |
| Completions | 208 | 175 |
| Completion % | 56.4% | 52.2% |
| Yards | 1,972 | 2,128 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 109.82 | 117.78 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 758 | 828 |
| Yards | 3,484 | 4,183 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 290.3 | 348.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 19 |
| Yards | 28 | 230 |
| Average | 2.5 | 12.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 22 |
| Yards | 492 | 453 |
| Average | 17.0 | 20.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 56 | 53 |
| Yards | 2,560 | 2,226 |
| Average | 45.7 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 4 |
| Yards | 74 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 12 |
| Lost | 11 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 54 | 55 |
| Yards | 481 | 517 |
| Yards / Game | 40.1 | 43.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:01 | 30:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 155 | 183 |
| Conversions | 50 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 32.3% | 42.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 33 |
| Conversions | 18 | 19 |
| Conversion % | 56.3% | 57.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 33 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 26 | 33 |
| Score % | 78.8% | 84.6% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 25 |
| TD % | 63.6% | 64.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 15 |
| Made | 13 | 12 |
| Pct | 92.9% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 35 |
| Made | 27 | 32 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 91.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.