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MINN
Minnesota
Golden GophersRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference7-6#53 (+2.48)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
60· COverall
Offense
55· CRating
47· CPer play
70· BConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
62· CPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.079
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.001
Defensive EPA/play
-0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.3%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.046
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.20
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.17
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#53
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#47
recruiting 6 spots higher
4 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Minnesota ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense66th
Opp-adjusted defense79th
Offensive EPA/play48th
Defensive EPA/play63th
Offensive success rate59th
Explosiveness76th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive52th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tennessee2019OA -0.013 / +0.086similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, run defense4052Utah2017OA -0.009 / +0.071similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, pass defense3893BYU2024OA +0.023 / +0.046similar: offensive success rate, run defense, turnover rate3744Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3655Tulsa2021OA -0.014 / +0.041similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA365
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs New Mexico State | 48-10 | W | +5.5 | W | 57 | U |
| 2 | vs Fresno State | 21-14 | W | - | - | 50.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Miami (OH) | 26-3 | W | -14.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Maryland | 13-42 | L | +2.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Iowa | 31-48 | L | +7.0 | L | 41.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Ohio State | 14-30 | L | +29.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Nebraska | 28-53 | L | +4.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Indiana | 38-31 | W | +2.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 10 | @ Illinois | 31-55 | L | -8.5 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Purdue | 41-10 | W | +10.5 | W | 58 | U |
| 12 | vs Northwestern | 14-24 | L | -3.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Wisconsin | 37-15 | W | +10.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 18 | @ Georgia Tech | 34-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.014 | 41th | -0.040 | 62th |
| Red Zone | +0.008 | 48th | +0.023 | 47th |
| Third Down | +0.104 | 62th | -0.049 | 70th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.008 | 45th | -0.050 | 65th |
| First Half | +0.021 | 55th | -0.043 | 57th |
| Second Half | -0.054 | 27th | -0.037 | 65th |
| Early Downs | -0.018 | 44th | -0.083 | 80th |
| Passing Downs | -0.043 | 33th | -0.018 | 57th |
| Standard Downs | -0.000 | 49th | -0.050 | 67th |
| Goal to Go | +0.426 | 94th | +0.194 | 33th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.7%Rush 60.3%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
379.6
Pts/Drive
2.20
3rd Down%
39.8%
3&Out%
17.4%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Minnesota vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Minnesota | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 376 | 345 |
| Points / Game | 28.9 | 26.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 269 | 237 |
| Rushing | 121 | 101 |
| Passing | 119 | 120 |
| Penalty | 29 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 524 | 436 |
| Yards | 2,221 | 2,254 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 170.8 | 173.4 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 345 | 409 |
| Completions | 190 | 265 |
| Completion % | 55.1% | 64.8% |
| Yards | 2,714 | 2,761 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 21 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 132.17 | 133.06 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 869 | 845 |
| Yards | 4,935 | 5,015 |
| Yards / Play | 5.7 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 379.6 | 385.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 9 |
| Yards | 267 | 10 |
| Average | 22.3 | 1.1 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 32 |
| Yards | 679 | 673 |
| Average | 23.4 | 21.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 51 | 64 |
| Yards | 2,103 | 2,649 |
| Average | 41.2 | 41.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 14 |
| Yards | 88 | 78 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 20 | 18 |
| Lost | 11 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 51 | 71 |
| Yards | 508 | 679 |
| Yards / Game | 39.1 | 52.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:09 | 27:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 176 |
| Conversions | 66 | 65 |
| Conversion % | 39.8% | 36.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 24 |
| Conversions | 10 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 62.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 59 | 32 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 28 |
| Score % | 81.4% | 87.5% |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 19 |
| TD % | 62.7% | 59.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 17 |
| Made | 17 | 16 |
| Pct | 73.9% | 94.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 43 | 36 |
| Made | 43 | 35 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 6 |
| Made | 2 | 5 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.