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BYU
BYU
CougarsBalancedBig 12 Conference11-2#16 (+7.96)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
88· BOverall
Offense
81· BRating
69· CPer play
66· CConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
84· BRating
86· BPer play
80· BConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
47· CRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.046
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.053
Defensive EPA/play
-0.113
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
44.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.165
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.005
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.65
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.34
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#13
AP 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#62
model 46 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
model 30 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where BYU ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense74th
Opp-adjusted defense87th
Offensive EPA/play70th
Defensive EPA/play87th
Offensive success rate57th
Explosiveness91th
Defensive havoc60th
Points per drive79th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: run defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3742Georgia2020OA +0.011 / +0.032similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3353App State2021OA +0.024 / +0.076similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, defensive EPA3344App State2020OA +0.035 / +0.030similar: rushing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA3305Washington State2021OA -0.072 / +0.113similar: run defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate323
2024 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southern Illinois | 41-13 | W | -14.5 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 2 | @ SMU | 18-15 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Wyoming | 34-14 | W | -11.0 | W | 40.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Kansas State | 38-9 | W | +6.5 | W | 48 | U |
| 5 | @ Baylor | 34-28 | W | +3.0 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Arizona | 41-19 | W | -5.0 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Oklahoma State | 38-35 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ UCF | 37-24 | W | +1.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Utah | 22-21 | W | -3.5 | L | 40.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Kansas | 13-17 | L | -3.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Arizona State | 23-28 | L | +3.0 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Houston | 30-18 | W | -13.0 | L | 41 | O |
| 18 | @ Colorado | 36-14 | W | +5.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS5-1
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.035 | 60th | -0.074 | 78th |
| Red Zone | -0.051 | 37th | +0.011 | 48th |
| Third Down | +0.173 | 66th | +0.155 | 35th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.053 | 75th | -0.095 | 84th |
| First Half | +0.048 | 67th | +0.007 | 41th |
| Second Half | +0.021 | 51th | -0.147 | 93th |
| Early Downs | -0.041 | 35th | -0.089 | 76th |
| Passing Downs | +0.086 | 69th | -0.131 | 83th |
| Standard Downs | +0.008 | 49th | -0.045 | 64th |
| Goal to Go | +0.054 | 57th | -0.049 | 58th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.3%Rush 54.7%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
16.1
Yards/Game
392.3
Pts/Drive
2.65
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
15.0%
Team Statistics
2024 season totals across 13 games — BYU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | BYU | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 405 | 255 |
| Points / Game | 31.2 | 19.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 289 | 221 |
| Rushing | 127 | 97 |
| Passing | 141 | 108 |
| Penalty | 21 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 457 | 426 |
| Yards | 2,093 | 1,642 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 161.0 | 126.3 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 379 | 392 |
| Completions | 217 | 217 |
| Completion % | 57.3% | 55.4% |
| Yards | 3,007 | 2,372 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.9 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 22 |
| Passer Rating | 134.80 | 105.91 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 836 | 818 |
| Yards | 5,100 | 4,014 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 392.3 | 308.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 8 |
| Yards | 229 | 66 |
| Average | 13.5 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 30 |
| Yards | 578 | 586 |
| Average | 26.3 | 19.5 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 38 | 48 |
| Yards | 1,592 | 2,159 |
| Average | 41.9 | 45.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 14 |
| Yards | 113 | 204 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 14 |
| Lost | 7 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 66 | 80 |
| Yards | 561 | 679 |
| Yards / Game | 43.2 | 52.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:20 | 28:40 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 153 | 175 |
| Conversions | 57 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 37.3% | 41.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 34 |
| Conversions | 18 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 75.0% | 47.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 51 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 44 | 33 |
| Score % | 86.3% | 80.5% |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 24 |
| TD % | 56.9% | 58.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 16 |
| Made | 24 | 13 |
| Pct | 88.9% | 81.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 27 |
| Made | 41 | 26 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 4 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.