Fourth Down Data
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UTAH

Utah

UtesBalanced
Big 12 Conference7-6#46 (+6.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

66· COverall
Offense
53· CRating
34· DPer play
72· BConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
71· BRating
68· CPer play
82· BConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
20· D3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.071
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.056
Defensive EPA/play
-0.092
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.036
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.14

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#46
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#53
model 7 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Utah ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
73th
Offensive EPA/play
35th
Defensive EPA/play
69th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Tulsa2021OA -0.014 / +0.041similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate4322Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3903Tennessee2019OA -0.013 / +0.086similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3724Texas Tech2026OA -0.030 / -0.018similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3675Western Kentucky2019OA -0.013 / +0.057similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, run defense354

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Dakota37-16W-7.0W56U
2@ BYU19-13W-4.5W46U
3vs San José State54-16W-27.5W59.5O
4@ Arizona30-24W-4.5W61U
6vs Stanford20-23L+3.0P52U
7@ USC27-28L+13.5W51.5O
8vs Arizona State10-30L-9.5L54U
9@ Oregon20-41L-3.0L49.5O
10vs UCLA48-17W-9.5W53.5O
11vs Washington State25-33L+1.0L50O
12@ Washington30-33L+17.5W47O
13vs Colorado34-13W-9.5W57U
18@ West Virginia30-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-3-1
72.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS6-2
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off63thRush Off25thRed Zone Off33th3rd Down Off20thPass Def77thRush Def55thRed Zone Def83th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04638th-0.07566th
Red Zone-0.06933th-0.17083th
Third Down-0.24420th-0.06961th
No Garbage Time-0.06233th-0.07968th
First Half-0.04743th-0.11171th
Second Half-0.04439th-0.03856th
Early Downs-0.09425th-0.08470th
Passing Downs+0.04663th-0.13377th
Standard Downs-0.08925th-0.03855th
Goal to Go-0.14829th+0.10832th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.8%Rush 55.2%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.9%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
413.4
Pts/Drive
2.14
3rd Down%
35.2%
3&Out%
13.8%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Utah vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtahOpponents
Scoring
Points384301
Points / Game29.523.2
First Downs
Total299227
Rushing13387
Passing136117
Penalty3023
Rushing
Attempts526427
Yards2,1321,707
Yards / Carry4.14.0
Yards / Game164.0131.3
Touchdowns2214
Passing
Attempts427441
Completions261246
Completion %61.1%55.8%
Yards3,2422,692
Yards / Attempt7.66.1
Touchdowns1817
Interceptions1414
Passer Rating132.25113.43
Total Offense
Plays953868
Yards5,3744,399
Yards / Play5.65.1
Yards / Game413.4338.4
Punt Returns
Returns287
Yards29127
Average10.43.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1829
Yards324657
Average18.022.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5267
Yards2,2822,934
Average43.943.8
Interception Returns
Returns1414
Yards12691
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2519
Lost1213
Penalties
Penalties8869
Yards789644
Yards / Game60.749.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3127:29
Third Downs
Attempts176193
Conversions6273
Conversion %35.2%37.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1911
Conversions116
Conversion %57.9%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips6344
Scores (TD + FG)5538
Score %87.3%86.4%
Touchdowns3323
TD %52.4%52.3%
Field Goals
Attempts3531
Made3024
Pct85.7%77.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4030
Made4029
Pct100.0%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts23
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →