Fourth Down Data
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TLSA

Tulsa

Golden HurricaneBalanced
American Conference7-6#83 (-1.66)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
33· DRating
45· CPer play
56· CConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
58· CPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
6· FRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.014
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.007
Defensive EPA/play
-0.039
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.033
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.091
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-3.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.35
own return game
Return Defense
-2.34
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#83
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#56
market 27 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
68th
Offensive EPA/play
45th
Defensive EPA/play
59th
Offensive success rate
58th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
43th
Points per drive
43th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Utah2017OA -0.009 / +0.071similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate4322Temple2017OA -0.067 / +0.055similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3663Minnesota2018OA +0.042 / +0.079similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3664Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3645Nebraska2020OA -0.001 / -0.002similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA356

2021 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UC Davis17-19L----
2@ Oklahoma State23-28L+12.5W51.5U
3@ Ohio State20-41L+24.5W61P
4vs Arkansas State41-34W-14.5L64.5O
5vs Houston10-45L----
6vs Memphis35-29W-3.0W61O
7@ South Florida32-31W-8.5L57.5O
9vs Navy17-20L----
10@ Cincinnati20-28L+22.5W54.5U
11@ Tulane20-13W-3.0W56U
12vs Temple44-10W-21.5W50.5O
13@ SMU34-31W+6.5W62O
16vs Old Dominion30-17W-7.5W54.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-6-1
50.0%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS4-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off58thRush Off34thRed Zone Off6th3rd Down Off10thPass Def45thRush Def69thRed Zone Def38th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01941th-0.03456th
Red Zone-0.3516th+0.01038th
Third Down-0.20310th+0.07550th
No Garbage Time-0.01741th-0.03356th
First Half-0.02538th-0.08676th
Second Half-0.01341th+0.02437th
Early Downs+0.02764th-0.07472th
Passing Downs+0.02458th+0.01045th
Standard Downs-0.04034th-0.06069th
Goal to Go-0.3847th+0.2948th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.8%Rush 57.2%
Havoc/Game
12.6
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
441.5
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
38.6%
3&Out%
18.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 13 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points343346
Points / Game26.426.6
First Downs
Total294253
Rushing12693
Passing138134
Penalty3026
Rushing
Attempts549479
Yards2,4961,857
Yards / Carry4.53.9
Yards / Game192.0142.8
Touchdowns2019
Passing
Attempts411406
Completions244240
Completion %59.4%59.1%
Yards3,2442,957
Yards / Attempt7.97.3
Touchdowns1815
Interceptions1611
Passer Rating132.33127.07
Total Offense
Plays960885
Yards5,7404,814
Yards / Play6.05.4
Yards / Game441.5370.3
Punt Returns
Returns2316
Yards76229
Average3.314.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2948
Yards4411,236
Average15.225.8
Touchdowns14
Punting
Punts6260
Yards2,8082,630
Average45.343.8
Interception Returns
Returns1116
Yards115279
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles1716
Lost87
Penalties
Penalties9794
Yards930823
Yards / Game71.563.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5030:19
Third Downs
Attempts189181
Conversions7370
Conversion %38.6%38.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1923
Conversions911
Conversion %47.4%47.8%
Red Zone
Trips5138
Scores (TD + FG)3932
Score %76.5%84.2%
Touchdowns2524
TD %49.0%63.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2326
Made2217
Pct95.7%65.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3640
Made3539
Pct97.2%97.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →