Fourth Down Data
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NMSU

New Mexico State

AggiesRun-Heavy
Conference USA7-6#103 (-4.43)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

24· DOverall
Offense
36· DRating
49· CPer play
34· DConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
29· DRating
65· CPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
96· ARed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
37· D3rd down O
66· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.054
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.076
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.011
Defensive EPA/play
-0.060
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.049
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.197
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.13

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.97
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.22
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#103
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#108
model 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 28 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
34th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
65th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
41th
Defensive havoc
47th
Points per drive
50th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wyoming2021OA +0.012 / -0.027similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3842Kentucky2023OA -0.025 / +0.045similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3473Auburn2023OA -0.094 / +0.044similar: run defense, turnover rate, passing offense3174Air Force2024OA -0.008 / -0.002similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3125Colorado2020OA -0.003 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense311

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Nevada12-23L+36.0L52.5U
1@ Minnesota0-38L----
2@ UTEP13-20L+17.5W46.5U
3@ Wisconsin7-66L+37.5L46O
4vs Hawai'i45-26W-5.0W53O
5vs Florida International7-21L-14.5L54U
7vs New Mexico21-9W+6.5W37.5U
9@ Massachusetts23-13W-2.0W38.75U
11vs Lamar51-14W-22.3W48.5O
12@ Missouri14-45L+28.5L46.5O
13@ Liberty49-14W+24.0W51O
14vs Valparaiso65-3W-28.0W--
17@ Bowling Green24-19W+3.5W48.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off32thRush Off66thRed Zone Off97th3rd Down Off38thPass Def36thRush Def73thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def67th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01448th-0.04961th
Red Zone+0.23297th-0.14671th
Third Down+0.01138th-0.02767th
No Garbage Time-0.02047th-0.07470th
First Half-0.03940th-0.02953th
Second Half+0.01459th-0.07073th
Early Downs+0.03169th-0.11886th
Passing Downs-0.08632th+0.02836th
Standard Downs+0.02966th-0.08973th
Goal to Go+0.49198th-0.12161th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.2%Rush 59.8%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
9.9
Yards/Game
330.9
Pts/Drive
2.13
3rd Down%
39.0%
3&Out%
22.4%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew Mexico StateOpponents
Scoring
Points331311
Points / Game25.523.9
First Downs
Total217253
Rushing95109
Passing91121
Penalty3123
Rushing
Attempts454496
Yards2,1031,943
Yards / Carry4.63.9
Yards / Game161.8149.5
Touchdowns2521
Passing
Attempts305376
Completions159221
Completion %52.1%58.8%
Yards2,1992,425
Yards / Attempt7.26.4
Touchdowns1814
Interceptions137
Passer Rating123.64121.52
Total Offense
Plays759872
Yards4,3024,368
Yards / Play5.75.0
Yards / Game330.9336.0
Punt Returns
Returns2416
Yards17744
Average7.42.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1534
Yards267819
Average17.824.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6159
Yards2,3892,391
Average39.240.5
Interception Returns
Returns713
Yards3065
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1013
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties8581
Yards736709
Yards / Game56.654.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2431:13
Third Downs
Attempts164178
Conversions6466
Conversion %39.0%37.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1521
Conversions1112
Conversion %73.3%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips3844
Scores (TD + FG)3336
Score %86.8%81.8%
Touchdowns2825
TD %73.7%56.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1321
Made817
Pct61.5%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4236
Made4136
Pct97.6%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →