Fourth Down Data
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COLO

Colorado

BuffaloesRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference4-2#69 (-0.47)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

46· COverall
Offense
37· DRating
39· DPer play
25· DConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
42· CPer play
93· AConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
64· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.020
Defensive EPA/play
+0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
41.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.067
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.74
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#69
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#69
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
51th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
39th
Defensive EPA/play
42th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
16th
Defensive havoc
91th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2023OA -0.094 / +0.044similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3522Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3343Central Michigan2024OA -0.040 / -0.007similar: run defense, turnover rate, passing offense3254Tulane2018OA -0.062 / +0.035similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate3245Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: pass defense, rushing offense, defensive EPA320

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10vs UCLA48-42W+6.5W55.5O
11@ Stanford35-32W+7.0W54.5O
13vs San Diego State20-10W-5.0W51U
14@ Arizona24-13W-7.5W59.5U
15vs Utah21-38L+2.8L48O
18vs Texas23-55L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-2
66.7%
O/U Record
4-2
66.7%
Straight Up
4-2
66.7%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS2-0
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off30thRush Off52thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off65thPass Def17thRush Def71thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def65th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01342th+0.03846th
Red Zone+0.17781th-0.08567th
Third Down+0.14565th+0.00665th
No Garbage Time-0.02040th+0.04743th
First Half-0.05427th-0.17895th
Second Half+0.03355th+0.2312th
Early Downs-0.01049th+0.08314th
Passing Downs-0.05230th+0.17217th
Standard Downs+0.00952th-0.04971th
Goal to Go+0.31582th-0.36492th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 39.2%Rush 60.8%
Havoc/Game
16.3
Havoc Rate
23.2%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
413.8
Pts/Drive
1.90
3rd Down%
42.7%
3&Out%
20.5%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColoradoOpponents
Scoring
Points171190
Points / Game28.531.7
First Downs
Total120128
Rushing5545
Passing5363
Penalty1220
Rushing
Attempts276200
Yards1,2741,087
Yards / Carry4.65.4
Yards / Game212.3181.2
Touchdowns159
Passing
Attempts178216
Completions98120
Completion %55.1%55.6%
Yards1,2091,435
Yards / Attempt6.86.6
Touchdowns612
Interceptions74
Passer Rating115.37125.99
Total Offense
Plays454416
Yards2,4832,522
Yards / Play5.56.1
Yards / Game413.8420.3
Punt Returns
Returns1112
Yards158103
Average14.48.6
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1416
Yards274365
Average19.622.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3532
Yards1,4471,422
Average41.344.4
Interception Returns
Returns47
Yards2383
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles78
Lost44
Penalties
Penalties3439
Yards338328
Yards / Game56.354.7
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3428:26
Third Downs
Attempts9685
Conversions4127
Conversion %42.7%31.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts710
Conversions31
Conversion %42.9%10.0%
Red Zone
Trips2320
Scores (TD + FG)2116
Score %91.3%80.0%
Touchdowns1711
TD %73.9%55.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1014
Made611
Pct60.0%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2119
Made2119
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts13
Made03
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →