Fourth Down Data
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CMU

Central Michigan

ChippewasRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference4-8#116 (-5.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
16· DRating
18· DPer play
30· DConsistency
28· DBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
50· CPer play
84· BConsistency
Situational
58· CRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
51· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.040
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.007
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.091
Defensive EPA/play
-0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.9%
Def Success Rate
42.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.089
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.171
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#110
market 6 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 36 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
16th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
50th
Offensive success rate
34th
Explosiveness
28th
Defensive havoc
76th
Points per drive
19th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2017OA +0.003 / +0.060similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3872Virginia Tech2022OA -0.094 / +0.007similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3643Ball State2023OA -0.109 / -0.019similar: passing offense, rushing offense, TD drive rate3524NC State2019OA -0.065 / -0.033similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense3475Michigan2026OA -0.056 / +0.027similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense346

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Central Connecticut State66-10W----
2@ Florida International16-52L-3.5L51.75O
3@ Illinois9-30L+18.5L48.5U
4vs Ball State37-34W-6.5L52O
5vs San Diego State22-21W-2.5L53.5U
7vs Ohio25-27L+3.0W48.5O
8@ Eastern Michigan34-38L+2.0L56O
9@ Miami (OH)7-46L+12.0L47O
11vs Bowling Green13-23L+14.5L52U
12@ Toledo10-37L+6.0W56.5U
13vs Western Michigan16-14W----
14@ Northern Illinois16-24L+12.5W44.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS0-3
Underdog ATS4-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off7thRush Off41thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off12thPass Def38thRush Def62thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09214th-0.01256th
Red Zone+0.04058th-0.17884th
Third Down-0.09812th+0.07251th
No Garbage Time-0.08818th+0.00047th
First Half-0.07328th-0.02052th
Second Half-0.11111th-0.00354th
Early Downs-0.03837th-0.10684th
Passing Downs-0.2127th+0.04038th
Standard Downs-0.02341th-0.04462th
Goal to Go+0.31991th-0.33191th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.3%Rush 59.7%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
21.3%
TO Margin
-1.4
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
329.5
Pts/Drive
1.80
3rd Down%
35.2%
3&Out%
27.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCentral MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points271356
Points / Game22.629.7
First Downs
Total216229
Rushing10599
Passing83105
Penalty2825
Rushing
Attempts447445
Yards1,9932,037
Yards / Carry4.54.6
Yards / Game166.1169.8
Touchdowns1720
Passing
Attempts302328
Completions167197
Completion %55.3%60.1%
Yards1,9612,326
Yards / Attempt6.57.1
Touchdowns1117
Interceptions122
Passer Rating113.92135.51
Total Offense
Plays749773
Yards3,9544,363
Yards / Play5.35.6
Yards / Game329.5363.6
Punt Returns
Returns1819
Yards221116
Average12.36.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3717
Yards671301
Average18.117.7
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5753
Yards2,3252,298
Average40.843.4
Interception Returns
Returns212
Yards53347
Touchdowns13
Fumbles
Fumbles188
Lost103
Penalties
Penalties8177
Yards731706
Yards / Game60.958.8
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2530:32
Third Downs
Attempts162160
Conversions5754
Conversion %35.2%33.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2623
Conversions1514
Conversion %57.7%60.9%
Red Zone
Trips3847
Scores (TD + FG)3541
Score %92.1%87.2%
Touchdowns2325
TD %60.5%53.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1830
Made1625
Pct88.9%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2736
Made2535
Pct92.6%97.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →