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NCSU
NC State
WolfpackBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference4-8#112 (-10.84)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
17· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
19· DPer play
42· CConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
27· DRating
33· DPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
51· CRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.065
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.033
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.093
Defensive EPA/play
+0.041
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.041
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.69
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.72
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#112
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 77 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense25th
Opp-adjusted defense37th
Offensive EPA/play19th
Defensive EPA/play34th
Offensive success rate37th
Explosiveness39th
Defensive havoc70th
Points per drive19th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1East Carolina2018OA -0.160 / -0.072similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4092Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, turnover rate3743USC2018OA -0.060 / +0.011similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, pass defense3654Indiana2022OA -0.127 / -0.010similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, run defense3605Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, rushing offense357
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs East Carolina | 34-6 | W | -17.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 2 | vs Western Carolina | 41-0 | W | -41.0 | P | 65.5 | U |
| 3 | @ West Virginia | 27-44 | L | -7.0 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Ball State | 34-23 | W | -19.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 5 | @ Florida State | 13-31 | L | +7.0 | L | 62 | U |
| 7 | vs Syracuse | 16-10 | W | -4.5 | W | 56 | U |
| 8 | @ Boston College | 24-45 | L | -4.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 10 | @ Wake Forest | 10-44 | L | +8.5 | L | 61 | U |
| 11 | vs Clemson | 10-55 | L | +36.0 | L | 55 | O |
| 12 | vs Louisville | 20-34 | L | +4.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Georgia Tech | 26-28 | L | -2.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 14 | vs North Carolina | 10-41 | L | +11.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
2-9-1
18.2%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS0-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.052 | 28th | +0.018 | 41th |
| Red Zone | -0.209 | 19th | -0.010 | 51th |
| Third Down | -0.177 | 13th | +0.152 | 25th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.092 | 20th | +0.037 | 37th |
| First Half | -0.061 | 28th | -0.024 | 55th |
| Second Half | -0.043 | 34th | +0.064 | 22th |
| Early Downs | +0.032 | 64th | -0.083 | 81th |
| Passing Downs | -0.130 | 18th | +0.077 | 31th |
| Standard Downs | -0.010 | 46th | -0.021 | 61th |
| Goal to Go | -0.314 | 15th | -0.096 | 61th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 52.6%Rush 47.4%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
20.1%
TO Margin
-1.1
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
380.3
Pts/Drive
1.69
3rd Down%
35.5%
3&Out%
24.8%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | NC State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 265 | 361 |
| Points / Game | 22.1 | 30.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 259 | 257 |
| Rushing | 110 | 87 |
| Passing | 123 | 142 |
| Penalty | 26 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 418 | 445 |
| Yards | 1,814 | 1,721 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Yards / Game | 151.2 | 143.4 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 21 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 463 | 412 |
| Completions | 244 | 265 |
| Completion % | 52.7% | 64.3% |
| Yards | 2,749 | 3,066 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.9 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 4 |
| Passer Rating | 108.23 | 144.11 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 881 | 857 |
| Yards | 4,563 | 4,787 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| Yards / Game | 380.3 | 398.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 23 |
| Yards | 203 | 157 |
| Average | 13.5 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 24 |
| Yards | 412 | 511 |
| Average | 18.7 | 21.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 57 | 68 |
| Yards | 2,663 | 2,849 |
| Average | 46.7 | 41.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 4 | 10 |
| Yards | 27 | 18 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 13 |
| Lost | 11 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 99 |
| Yards | 627 | 747 |
| Yards / Game | 52.3 | 62.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:20 | 30:40 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 183 | 178 |
| Conversions | 65 | 73 |
| Conversion % | 35.5% | 41.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 12 |
| Conversions | 14 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 48.3% | 75.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 48 | 48 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 42 |
| Score % | 83.3% | 87.5% |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 31 |
| TD % | 47.9% | 64.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 20 |
| Made | 21 | 14 |
| Pct | 87.5% | 70.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 45 |
| Made | 28 | 43 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 95.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.