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USC
USC
TrojansBalancedBig Ten Conference5-7#77 (-0.73)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
42· COverall
Offense
24· DRating
29· DPer play
52· CConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
60· CRating
42· CPer play
83· BConsistency
Situational
15· DRed-zone O
24· DRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.060
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.039
Defensive EPA/play
+0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.055
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.053
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.89
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.55
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.53
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.16
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#77
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#4
recruiting 73 spots higher
58 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense27th
Opp-adjusted defense55th
Offensive EPA/play29th
Defensive EPA/play43th
Offensive success rate53th
Explosiveness31th
Defensive havoc70th
Points per drive26th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Middle Tennessee2017OA -0.076 / -0.008similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, passing offense3682NC State2019OA -0.065 / -0.033similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, pass defense3633LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, havoc rate3634Hawai'i2024OA -0.018 / -0.015similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3595Auburn2024OA -0.000 / +0.003similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA354
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs UNLV | 43-21 | W | -24.0 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Stanford | 3-17 | L | +4.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Texas | 14-37 | L | +4.0 | L | 47 | O |
| 4 | vs Washington State | 39-36 | W | -4.5 | L | 51 | O |
| 5 | @ Arizona | 24-20 | W | -3.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 7 | vs Colorado | 31-20 | W | -7.0 | W | 57 | U |
| 8 | @ Utah | 28-41 | L | +6.5 | L | 48 | O |
| 9 | vs Arizona State | 35-38 | L | -3.0 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Oregon State | 38-21 | W | -15.0 | W | 64.5 | U |
| 11 | vs California | 14-15 | L | -5.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 12 | @ UCLA | 27-34 | L | -2.5 | L | 55 | O |
| 13 | vs Notre Dame | 17-24 | L | +12.5 | W | 54 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.042 | 27th | +0.011 | 48th |
| Red Zone | -0.153 | 15th | +0.143 | 24th |
| Third Down | -0.103 | 17th | +0.232 | 18th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.035 | 31th | +0.009 | 47th |
| First Half | +0.011 | 51th | +0.005 | 42th |
| Second Half | -0.103 | 13th | +0.018 | 45th |
| Early Downs | -0.034 | 37th | -0.071 | 73th |
| Passing Downs | -0.068 | 25th | +0.005 | 51th |
| Standard Downs | -0.029 | 36th | +0.015 | 39th |
| Goal to Go | +0.168 | 72th | +0.406 | 6th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 50.6%Rush 49.4%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
20.7%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
382.6
Pts/Drive
1.89
3rd Down%
37.1%
3&Out%
24.8%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | USC | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 313 | 324 |
| Points / Game | 26.1 | 27.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 231 | 246 |
| Rushing | 83 | 94 |
| Passing | 125 | 128 |
| Penalty | 23 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 392 | 460 |
| Yards | 1,602 | 1,977 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Yards / Game | 133.5 | 164.8 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 20 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 402 | 408 |
| Completions | 244 | 239 |
| Completion % | 60.7% | 58.6% |
| Yards | 2,989 | 2,679 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 4 |
| Passer Rating | 132.95 | 127.95 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 794 | 868 |
| Yards | 4,591 | 4,656 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 382.6 | 388.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 19 |
| Yards | 231 | 199 |
| Average | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 29 | 18 |
| Yards | 657 | 416 |
| Average | 22.7 | 23.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 66 | 71 |
| Yards | 2,556 | 2,879 |
| Average | 38.7 | 40.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 4 | 10 |
| Yards | 2 | 44 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 24 | 11 |
| Lost | 10 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 96 | 70 |
| Yards | 883 | 643 |
| Yards / Game | 73.6 | 53.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:49 | 31:12 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 167 | 193 |
| Conversions | 62 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 37.1% | 39.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 21 |
| Conversions | 9 | 13 |
| Conversion % | 52.9% | 61.9% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 33 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 27 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 81.8% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 21 |
| TD % | 54.3% | 63.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 16 |
| Made | 13 | 11 |
| Pct | 76.5% | 68.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 38 | 39 |
| Made | 38 | 37 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 94.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.