← All Teams
MRSH
Marshall
Thundering HerdRun-HeavySun Belt Conference8-5#93 (-6.50)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
31· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
33· DPer play
39· DConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
55· CRating
54· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
47· CRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.000
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.040
Defensive EPA/play
-0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
45.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.033
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.188
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.89
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#93
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#60
recruiting 33 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Marshall ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense22th
Opp-adjusted defense52th
Offensive EPA/play34th
Defensive EPA/play54th
Offensive success rate43th
Explosiveness21th
Defensive havoc38th
Points per drive31th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1South Florida2018OA -0.024 / -0.020similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4472North Carolina2024OA -0.010 / -0.021similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, turnover rate4013Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, havoc rate3664NC State2019OA -0.065 / -0.033similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, rushing offense3575Florida2017OA +0.003 / +0.060similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive EPA354
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs VMI | 56-17 | W | +16.0 | L | 60 | O |
| 2 | @ Boise State | 7-14 | L | +14.0 | W | 58 | U |
| 3 | vs Ohio | 33-31 | W | -4.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 5 | vs Cincinnati | 14-52 | L | +4.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Middle Tennessee | 13-24 | L | -5.0 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Old Dominion | 31-17 | W | -16.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | W | +3.5 | W | 58.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Western Kentucky | 26-23 | W | -4.0 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Rice | 20-7 | W | -12.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Louisiana Tech | 31-10 | W | -6.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Charlotte | 13-24 | L | -6.5 | L | 56.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Florida International | 30-27 | W | -10.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 17 | vs UCF | 25-48 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.029 | 34th | -0.003 | 51th |
| Red Zone | -0.054 | 47th | -0.070 | 64th |
| Third Down | +0.034 | 52th | -0.019 | 62th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.041 | 33th | -0.006 | 54th |
| First Half | -0.023 | 42th | -0.050 | 64th |
| Second Half | -0.036 | 36th | +0.042 | 31th |
| Early Downs | -0.010 | 43th | +0.026 | 39th |
| Passing Downs | -0.097 | 27th | -0.016 | 52th |
| Standard Downs | +0.006 | 51th | +0.004 | 50th |
| Goal to Go | -0.167 | 32th | -0.066 | 56th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.0%Rush 60.0%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
17.5%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
393.8
Pts/Drive
1.89
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
22.4%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Marshall vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Marshall | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 335 | 325 |
| Points / Game | 25.8 | 25.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 271 | 267 |
| Rushing | 142 | 106 |
| Passing | 100 | 132 |
| Penalty | 29 | 29 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 532 | 481 |
| Yards | 2,514 | 1,924 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 193.4 | 148.0 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 355 | 410 |
| Completions | 200 | 239 |
| Completion % | 56.3% | 58.3% |
| Yards | 2,605 | 3,011 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 16 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 126.65 | 127.98 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 887 | 891 |
| Yards | 5,119 | 4,935 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 393.8 | 379.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 19 |
| Yards | 248 | 117 |
| Average | 11.8 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 31 | 25 |
| Yards | 578 | 716 |
| Average | 18.6 | 28.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 66 | 67 |
| Yards | 2,709 | 2,716 |
| Average | 41.0 | 40.5 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 11 |
| Yards | 166 | 81 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 17 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 75 | 76 |
| Yards | 680 | 664 |
| Yards / Game | 52.3 | 51.1 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:58 | 29:02 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 179 | 184 |
| Conversions | 69 | 72 |
| Conversion % | 38.5% | 39.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 19 |
| Conversions | 6 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 42.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 37 |
| Score % | 78.6% | 78.7% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 27 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 57.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 20 |
| Made | 18 | 13 |
| Pct | 85.7% | 65.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 41 |
| Made | 35 | 40 |
| Pct | 97.2% | 97.6% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 0 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.