Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#81 (-1.31)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
47· CRating
33· DPer play
41· CConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
34· DRating
38· DPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.010
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.026
Defensive EPA/play
+0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.045
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.227
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.17

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.70
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.37
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#81
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#37
market 44 higher
Recruiting Rank
#18
recruiting 63 spots higher
33 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
26th
Offensive EPA/play
33th
Defensive EPA/play
39th
Offensive success rate
48th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, turnover rate4012South Florida2018OA -0.024 / -0.020similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3733Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3594Purdue2022OA +0.107 / -0.006similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, run defense3585Houston2020OA +0.005 / +0.001similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA346

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Minnesota19-17W----
2vs Charlotte38-20W-22.0L48.25O
3vs North Carolina Central45-10W-37.5L55.5U
4vs James Madison50-70L-10.5L48.5O
5@ Duke20-21L+2.5W56U
6vs Pittsburgh24-34L+3.0L64U
7vs Georgia Tech34-41L+5.5L59O
9@ Virginia41-14W+4.5W59.25U
10@ Florida State35-11W-2.5W51U
12vs Wake Forest31-24W-11.0L64U
13@ Boston College21-41L-3.0L56.5O
14vs NC State30-35L+3.5L55.5O
18vs UConn14-27L-3.0L53U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-9-1
25.0%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS0-8
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS1-6
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off56thRed Zone Off70th3rd Down Off47thPass Def69thRush Def23thRed Zone Def46th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01452th+0.01042th
Red Zone+0.09470th+0.01146th
Third Down+0.09547th+0.00172th
No Garbage Time-0.03232th+0.00843th
First Half-0.00943th+0.00840th
Second Half+0.03757th+0.01343th
Early Downs+0.01160th+0.03823th
Passing Downs+0.00846th-0.07269th
Standard Downs+0.01756th+0.05423th
Goal to Go+0.23883th-0.04656th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.1%Rush 55.9%
Havoc/Game
13.2
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.2
Yards/Game
406.7
Pts/Drive
2.17
3rd Down%
37.5%
3&Out%
25.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points402365
Points / Game30.928.1
First Downs
Total273253
Rushing125115
Passing122111
Penalty2627
Rushing
Attempts496493
Yards2,3701,943
Yards / Carry4.83.9
Yards / Game182.3149.5
Touchdowns2621
Passing
Attempts392374
Completions230217
Completion %58.7%58.0%
Yards2,9172,942
Yards / Attempt7.47.9
Touchdowns1819
Interceptions99
Passer Rating131.74136.05
Total Offense
Plays888867
Yards5,2874,885
Yards / Play6.05.6
Yards / Game406.7375.8
Punt Returns
Returns1319
Yards187147
Average14.47.7
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns3316
Yards865321
Average26.220.1
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts5362
Yards2,0972,627
Average39.642.4
Interception Returns
Returns99
Yards210231
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles1317
Lost86
Penalties
Penalties9887
Yards832772
Yards / Game64.059.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3930:21
Third Downs
Attempts176174
Conversions6663
Conversion %37.5%36.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2719
Conversions1310
Conversion %48.1%52.6%
Red Zone
Trips4551
Scores (TD + FG)4047
Score %88.9%92.2%
Touchdowns2930
TD %64.4%58.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2226
Made1621
Pct72.7%80.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4739
Made4638
Pct97.9%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →