Fourth Down Data
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USF

South Florida

BullsBalanced
American Conference7-6#92 (-2.69)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
22· DRating
42· CPer play
40· CConsistency
26· DBig plays
Defense
47· CRating
50· CPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
10· F3rd down O
28· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.020
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.015
Defensive EPA/play
+0.000
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.015
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.243
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.95

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.12
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
recruiting 26 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where South Florida ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
34th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
50th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
27th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
32th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4472North Carolina2024OA -0.010 / -0.021similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3733Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3584Texas Tech2020OA -0.029 / -0.010similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense3535Florida International2019OA -0.030 / -0.046similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA350

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Elon34-14W+3.5L51O
2vs Georgia Tech49-38W+3.0W61O
3@ Illinois25-19W-14.0L59U
4vs East Carolina20-13W-20.5L67.5U
6@ Massachusetts58-42W-15.0W71.5O
7@ Tulsa25-24W-10.0L60.5U
8vs UConn38-30W-33.0L67.5O
9@ Houston36-57L+10.0L76O
10vs Tulane15-41L-6.0L60.5U
11@ Cincinnati23-35L+14.0W53O
12@ Temple17-27L+14.0W63U
13vs UCF10-38L+16.5L70U
17vs Marshall20-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-5
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off19thRush Off67thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off11thPass Def42thRush Def30thRed Zone Def37th3rd Down Def28th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00845th+0.03835th
Red Zone-0.05632th+0.05737th
Third Down-0.16411th+0.15128th
No Garbage Time-0.00944th+0.01046th
First Half-0.10018th-0.05061th
Second Half+0.09180th+0.12413th
Early Downs+0.04770th-0.00645th
Passing Downs-0.09719th+0.04942th
Standard Downs+0.03867th+0.03230th
Goal to Go-0.15317th+0.06154th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
437.7
Pts/Drive
1.95
3rd Down%
37.4%
3&Out%
26.6%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — South Florida vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouth FloridaOpponents
Scoring
Points370416
Points / Game28.532.0
First Downs
Total284302
Rushing128160
Passing137117
Penalty1925
Rushing
Attempts516629
Yards2,5173,218
Yards / Carry4.95.1
Yards / Game193.6247.5
Touchdowns2636
Passing
Attempts432365
Completions252202
Completion %58.3%55.3%
Yards3,1732,588
Yards / Attempt7.37.1
Touchdowns1715
Interceptions1211
Passer Rating127.46122.44
Total Offense
Plays948994
Yards5,6905,806
Yards / Play6.05.8
Yards / Game437.7446.6
Punt Returns
Returns2023
Yards89234
Average4.510.2
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4944
Yards1,157831
Average23.618.9
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts7771
Yards3,2883,022
Average42.742.6
Interception Returns
Returns1112
Yards16399
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1514
Lost1010
Penalties
Penalties9981
Yards877675
Yards / Game67.551.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:0033:00
Third Downs
Attempts195210
Conversions7387
Conversion %37.4%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2023
Conversions1213
Conversion %60.0%56.5%
Red Zone
Trips4552
Scores (TD + FG)3943
Score %86.7%82.7%
Touchdowns2433
TD %53.3%63.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2018
Made1715
Pct85.0%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4352
Made3951
Pct90.7%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →