Fourth Down Data
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Texas Tech

Red RaidersBalanced
Big 12 Conference4-6#113 (-7.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
23· DRating
20· DPer play
32· DConsistency
21· DBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
50· CPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
22· D3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.029
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.073
Defensive EPA/play
+0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.0%
Def Success Rate
49.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.098
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.106
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.58
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.75
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.31
own return game
Return Defense
-0.80
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#113
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#82
market 31 higher
Recruiting Rank
#29
recruiting 84 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
19th
Opp-adjusted defense
43th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
50th
Offensive success rate
41th
Explosiveness
21th
Defensive havoc
27th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ball State2022OA -0.128 / -0.018similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate3842Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, passing offense3703Middle Tennessee2023OA -0.089 / -0.016similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3674Kentucky2025OA -0.115 / +0.051similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3565South Florida2018OA -0.024 / -0.020similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, rushing offense353

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
2vs Houston Christian35-33W----
4vs Texas56-63L+17.5W70.5O
5@ Kansas State21-31L+2.5L64U
6@ Iowa State15-31L+12.5L64.5U
8vs West Virginia34-27W+3.5W54O
9vs Oklahoma28-62L+14.5L67.5O
10@ TCU18-34L+8.5L61.5U
11vs Baylor24-23W-1.5L57.75U
13@ Oklahoma State44-50L+11.0W54O
14vs Kansas16-13W-27.0L62.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-6
33.3%
O/U Record
4-5
44.4%
Straight Up
4-6
40.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS3-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off29thRush Off32thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off23thPass Def58thRush Def41thRed Zone Def38th3rd Down Def29th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04726th+0.03149th
Red Zone+0.05262th+0.04938th
Third Down-0.09423th+0.17329th
No Garbage Time-0.06324th+0.02848th
First Half-0.13914th+0.08428th
Second Half+0.03152th-0.03366th
Early Downs-0.06429th+0.01149th
Passing Downs-0.05429th+0.02258th
Standard Downs-0.04332th+0.03541th
Goal to Go-0.01444th-0.06166th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.1%Rush 45.9%
Havoc/Game
12.7
Havoc Rate
16.0%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
429.5
Pts/Drive
1.88
3rd Down%
36.9%
3&Out%
24.8%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — Texas Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexas TechOpponents
Scoring
Points291367
Points / Game29.136.7
First Downs
Total214233
Rushing82102
Passing118108
Penalty1423
Rushing
Attempts337423
Yards1,6281,864
Yards / Carry4.84.4
Yards / Game162.8186.4
Touchdowns1724
Passing
Attempts398354
Completions259225
Completion %65.1%63.6%
Yards2,6672,585
Yards / Attempt6.77.3
Touchdowns1817
Interceptions115
Passer Rating130.76137.92
Total Offense
Plays735777
Yards4,2954,449
Yards / Play5.85.7
Yards / Game429.5444.9
Punt Returns
Returns1914
Yards107170
Average5.612.1
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2322
Yards395480
Average17.221.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5150
Yards2,2101,953
Average43.339.1
Interception Returns
Returns511
Yards45218
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles2012
Lost85
Penalties
Penalties6760
Yards577507
Yards / Game57.750.7
Time of Possession
Per Game27:0432:57
Third Downs
Attempts149157
Conversions5565
Conversion %36.9%41.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2421
Conversions1412
Conversion %58.3%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips3349
Scores (TD + FG)2542
Score %75.8%85.7%
Touchdowns2032
TD %60.6%65.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1621
Made917
Pct56.3%81.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3443
Made3242
Pct94.1%97.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →