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BALL
Ball State
CardinalsBalancedMid-American Conference5-7#90 (-2.56)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
34· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
31· DPer play
28· DConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
56· CRating
48· CPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
71· BRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
21· D3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.128
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.018
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.074
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
46.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.053
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.081
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.75
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.57
own return game
Return Defense
+1.32
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#90
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#100
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 15 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense10th
Opp-adjusted defense44th
Offensive EPA/play31th
Defensive EPA/play49th
Offensive success rate22th
Explosiveness13th
Defensive havoc37th
Points per drive27th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Texas Tech2020OA -0.029 / -0.010similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate3842Wisconsin2024OA -0.031 / +0.002similar: defensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate3763Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3514Wyoming2024OA -0.049 / -0.004similar: takeaway rate, run defense, defensive EPA3485Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, passing offense348
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Tennessee | 10-59 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Western Michigan | 30-37 | L | +6.5 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Murray State | 31-0 | W | -20.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 4 | @ Georgia Southern | 23-34 | L | +9.5 | L | 67.5 | U |
| 5 | vs Northern Illinois | 44-38 | W | +3.5 | W | 60 | O |
| 6 | @ Central Michigan | 17-16 | W | +7.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 7 | vs UConn | 25-21 | W | -9.0 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Eastern Michigan | 16-20 | L | -2.5 | L | 59 | U |
| 10 | @ Kent State | 27-20 | W | +11.0 | W | 50 | U |
| 11 | @ Toledo | 21-28 | L | +3.5 | L | 57 | U |
| 12 | vs Ohio | 18-32 | L | +2.5 | W | 45 | U |
| 13 | @ Miami (OH) | 17-18 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.080 | 27th | -0.030 | 53th |
| Red Zone | +0.097 | 72th | +0.145 | 19th |
| Third Down | -0.098 | 21th | -0.053 | 71th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.081 | 30th | -0.022 | 50th |
| First Half | -0.140 | 16th | -0.014 | 47th |
| Second Half | -0.022 | 48th | -0.049 | 59th |
| Early Downs | -0.074 | 24th | -0.003 | 41th |
| Passing Downs | -0.117 | 23th | -0.086 | 76th |
| Standard Downs | -0.061 | 30th | -0.002 | 41th |
| Goal to Go | +0.051 | 66th | -0.024 | 48th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 53.6%Rush 46.4%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.5
Yards/Game
383.7
Pts/Drive
1.75
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
20.0%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ball State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 279 | 323 |
| Points / Game | 23.3 | 26.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 256 | 280 |
| Rushing | 96 | 126 |
| Passing | 134 | 129 |
| Penalty | 26 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 417 | 531 |
| Yards | 1,868 | 2,198 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 155.7 | 183.2 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 482 | 416 |
| Completions | 288 | 241 |
| Completion % | 59.8% | 57.9% |
| Yards | 2,736 | 2,593 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.7 | 6.2 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 113.95 | 120.41 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 899 | 947 |
| Yards | 4,604 | 4,791 |
| Yards / Play | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 383.7 | 399.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 17 |
| Yards | 57 | 112 |
| Average | 4.1 | 6.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 33 |
| Yards | 473 | 581 |
| Average | 20.6 | 17.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 64 |
| Yards | 2,787 | 2,546 |
| Average | 41.0 | 39.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 14 |
| Yards | 44 | 147 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 10 | 15 |
| Lost | 7 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 72 | 79 |
| Yards | 676 | 695 |
| Yards / Game | 56.3 | 57.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:60 | 31:60 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 185 | 200 |
| Conversions | 67 | 79 |
| Conversion % | 36.2% | 39.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 30 |
| Conversions | 6 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 31.6% | 53.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 45 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 38 |
| Score % | 88.1% | 84.4% |
| Touchdowns | 25 | 29 |
| TD % | 59.5% | 64.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 21 |
| Made | 17 | 14 |
| Pct | 81.0% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 36 |
| Made | 28 | 35 |
| Pct | 96.6% | 97.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 4 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.