Fourth Down Data
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BUF

Buffalo

BullsPass-Heavy
Mid-American Conference1-0#134 (-15.55)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

3· FOverall
Offense
0· FRating
26· DPer play
21· DConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
23· DRating
66· CPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
94· ARed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
47· C3rd down O
74· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.068
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.074
Defensive EPA/play
-0.209
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.3%
Def Success Rate
34.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.134
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.77
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.18
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
10th
Opp-adjusted defense
39th
Offensive EPA/play
26th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
22th
Explosiveness
32th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, run defense3542Indiana2017OA -0.039 / +0.073similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3513Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3414Eastern Michigan2026OA -0.077 / +0.050similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3405Sacramento State2026OA -0.109 / +0.054similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, run defense335

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Albany21-17W-18.5L48.5U
2@ Florida International------
3@ Penn State------
4vs Robert Morris------
5vs Western Michigan------
6@ Toledo------
7vs Massachusetts------
8vs Bowling Green------
10@ Miami (OH)------
11@ Ball State------
12vs Central Michigan------
13@ Akron------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off20thRush Off44thRed Zone Off95th3rd Down Off47thPass Def71thRush Def63thRed Zone Def42th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07426th-0.20969th
Red Zone+0.67595th+0.02942th
Third Down+0.06047th-0.33374th
No Garbage Time-0.07426th-0.20967th
First Half+0.07153th-0.16756th
Second Half-0.27114th-0.23570th
Early Downs-0.05134th-0.25676th
Passing Downs-0.22120th-0.22771th
Standard Downs+0.00544th-0.19263th
Goal to Go+0.82689th-1.35899th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 58.8%Rush 41.3%
Havoc/Game
17.0
Havoc Rate
23.3%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
340.0
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
47.6%
3&Out%
26.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBuffaloOpponents
Scoring
Points2117
Points / Game21.017.0
First Downs
Total1819
Rushing43
Passing1211
Penalty25
Rushing
Attempts3331
Yards15172
Yards / Carry4.62.3
Yards / Game151.072.0
Touchdowns00
Passing
Attempts4741
Completions2619
Completion %55.3%46.3%
Yards189204
Yards / Attempt4.05.0
Touchdowns32
Interceptions01
Passer Rating110.1699.36
Total Offense
Plays8072
Yards340276
Yards / Play4.33.8
Yards / Game340.0276.0
Punt Returns
Returns31
Yards344
Average11.34.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards100
Average10.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts99
Yards401405
Average44.645.0
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles20
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties108
Yards11966
Yards / Game119.066.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5328:07
Third Downs
Attempts2119
Conversions105
Conversion %47.6%26.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts02
Conversions01
Conversion %—50.0%
Red Zone
Trips33
Scores (TD + FG)32
Score %100.0%66.7%
Touchdowns32
TD %100.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts01
Made01
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts32
Made32
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →