Fourth Down Data
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TLSA

Tulsa

Golden HurricaneBalanced
American Conference4-8#107 (-10.13)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
26· DPer play
45· CConsistency
58· CBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
46· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.071
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.069
Defensive EPA/play
-0.006
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.9%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.063
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.057
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.24
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.72
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#107
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#121
model 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 28 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
24th
Opp-adjusted defense
39th
Offensive EPA/play
27th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
59th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2022OA -0.127 / -0.010similar: havoc rate, defensive success rate, rushing offense3802Old Dominion2021OA -0.103 / -0.001similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3633Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3594Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, passing offense3585Georgia Southern2021OA -0.108 / -0.054similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate357

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Abilene Christian35-7W-5.5W59.5U
2@ New Mexico State14-21L-3.5L52.5U
3vs Navy23-42L+14.5L51.5O
4@ Oklahoma State19-12W----
5vs Tulane14-31L+16.5L61.5U
6@ Memphis7-45L+21.0L54.5U
8@ East Carolina27-41L----
9vs Temple37-38L+4.5W67.5O
11@ Florida Atlantic21-40L+24.5W66.5U
12vs Oregon State31-14W+2.0W50U
13@ Army26-25W+10.0W45.5O
14vs UAB24-31L-8.5L54.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS6-3
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off44thRush Off22thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off62thPass Def52thRush Def33thRed Zone Def19th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05433th+0.01239th
Red Zone-0.15619th+0.14619th
Third Down+0.14062th+0.07550th
No Garbage Time-0.06330th-0.01248th
First Half-0.03936th+0.01939th
Second Half-0.07125th+0.00543th
Early Downs-0.11510th+0.05916th
Passing Downs-0.03944th-0.03552th
Standard Downs-0.06222th+0.03433th
Goal to Go-0.3828th-0.18275th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.5%Rush 54.5%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-0.8
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
397.9
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
38.1%
3&Out%
21.4%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points278347
Points / Game23.228.9
First Downs
Total265251
Rushing120124
Passing118112
Penalty2715
Rushing
Attempts489510
Yards2,1062,189
Yards / Carry4.34.3
Yards / Game175.5182.4
Touchdowns1822
Passing
Attempts409347
Completions241220
Completion %58.9%63.4%
Yards2,6692,571
Yards / Attempt6.57.4
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions107
Passer Rating120.95141.57
Total Offense
Plays898857
Yards4,7754,760
Yards / Play5.35.6
Yards / Game397.9396.7
Punt Returns
Returns1114
Yards9694
Average8.76.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2920
Yards523328
Average18.016.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4852
Yards2,0662,197
Average43.042.3
Interception Returns
Returns710
Yards56111
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2214
Lost104
Penalties
Penalties6165
Yards458643
Yards / Game38.253.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3431:27
Third Downs
Attempts189183
Conversions7279
Conversion %38.1%43.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4231
Conversions2416
Conversion %57.1%51.6%
Red Zone
Trips4249
Scores (TD + FG)3543
Score %83.3%87.8%
Touchdowns2334
TD %54.8%69.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2114
Made1713
Pct81.0%92.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2738
Made2738
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts66
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →