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ODU
Old Dominion
MonarchsBalancedSun Belt Conference6-7#69 (-0.16)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
48· COverall
Offense
28· DRating
26· DPer play
33· DConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
50· CPer play
58· CConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
75· BRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.103
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.068
Defensive EPA/play
-0.021
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.047
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.90
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.94
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.65
own return game
Return Defense
-0.33
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#69
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#115
model 46 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 3 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense14th
Opp-adjusted defense44th
Offensive EPA/play26th
Defensive EPA/play50th
Offensive success rate36th
Explosiveness59th
Defensive havoc25th
Points per drive35th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Middle Tennessee2017OA -0.076 / -0.008similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3792Tulsa2025OA -0.071 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3633Washington State2026OA -0.023 / +0.025similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3584Marshall2019OA -0.070 / -0.000similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, passing offense3515East Carolina2024OA -0.003 / -0.003similar: pass defense, turnover rate, defensive EPA343
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Wake Forest | 10-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Hampton | 47-7 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Liberty | 17-45 | L | +27.5 | L | 53 | O |
| 4 | vs Buffalo | 34-35 | L | +13.0 | W | 50.5 | O |
| 5 | @ UTEP | 21-28 | L | +5.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Marshall | 13-20 | L | +21.0 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Western Kentucky | 20-43 | L | +12.5 | L | 67 | U |
| 9 | vs Louisiana Tech | 23-20 | W | +4.5 | W | 52.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Florida International | 47-24 | W | -2.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 11 | vs Florida Atlantic | 30-16 | W | +7.0 | W | 48 | U |
| 12 | @ Middle Tennessee | 24-17 | W | +3.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Charlotte | 56-34 | W | -9.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 16 | @ Tulsa | 17-30 | L | +7.5 | L | 54.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.070 | 24th | -0.029 | 52th |
| Red Zone | -0.013 | 53th | -0.156 | 76th |
| Third Down | +0.140 | 62th | +0.129 | 38th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.071 | 26th | -0.028 | 53th |
| First Half | -0.077 | 26th | +0.052 | 29th |
| Second Half | -0.063 | 26th | -0.116 | 86th |
| Early Downs | -0.114 | 14th | +0.012 | 36th |
| Passing Downs | -0.061 | 34th | -0.057 | 67th |
| Standard Downs | -0.075 | 21th | -0.016 | 53th |
| Goal to Go | -0.187 | 24th | -0.161 | 71th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 45.9%Rush 54.1%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
16.1%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
375.5
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
42.3%
3&Out%
22.7%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Old Dominion | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 359 | 361 |
| Points / Game | 27.6 | 27.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 265 | 279 |
| Rushing | 128 | 102 |
| Passing | 115 | 148 |
| Penalty | 22 | 29 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 494 | 491 |
| Yards | 2,093 | 1,744 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 161.0 | 134.2 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 419 | 448 |
| Completions | 244 | 280 |
| Completion % | 58.2% | 62.5% |
| Yards | 2,789 | 3,261 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 119.28 | 141.14 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 913 | 939 |
| Yards | 4,882 | 5,005 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 375.5 | 385.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 28 | 19 |
| Yards | 320 | 127 |
| Average | 11.4 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 34 | 46 |
| Yards | 796 | 997 |
| Average | 23.4 | 21.7 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 58 | 58 |
| Yards | 2,294 | 2,372 |
| Average | 39.6 | 40.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 14 |
| Yards | 119 | 161 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 18 | 15 |
| Lost | 9 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 89 | 101 |
| Yards | 782 | 903 |
| Yards / Game | 60.2 | 69.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:18 | 30:18 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 196 |
| Conversions | 80 | 82 |
| Conversion % | 42.3% | 41.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 29 |
| Conversions | 9 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 41.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 50 | 47 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 42 | 40 |
| Score % | 84.0% | 85.1% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 25 |
| TD % | 54.0% | 53.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 26 | 22 |
| Made | 20 | 18 |
| Pct | 76.9% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 43 |
| Made | 39 | 41 |
| Pct | 95.1% | 95.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.