Fourth Down Data
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ECU

East Carolina

PiratesBalanced
American Conference8-5#73 (+0.13)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

46· COverall
Offense
44· CRating
52· CPer play
69· CConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
49· CRating
47· CPer play
65· CConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
53· CRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
29· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.003
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.003
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.007
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.008
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.28

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#73
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#51
market 22 higher
Recruiting Rank
#70
recruiting 3 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where East Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
43th
Opp-adjusted defense
49th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
29th
Defensive havoc
48th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2020OA +0.005 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3632Texas Tech2022OA +0.017 / +0.036similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3533Temple2018OA +0.045 / +0.017similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense3514Old Dominion2021OA -0.103 / -0.001similar: pass defense, turnover rate, defensive EPA3435Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: rushing offense, pass defense, havoc rate340

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Norfolk State42-3W-33.5W50.5U
2@ Old Dominion20-14W+2.0W49.25U
3vs App State19-21L+2.5W60.5U
4@ Liberty24-35L+6.0L54O
5vs UTSA30-20W-4.0W55.5U
6@ Charlotte24-55L-8.5L47O
8@ Army28-45L+15.0L51.5O
9vs Temple56-34W-7.0W49O
11vs Florida Atlantic49-14W-14.0L62O
12@ Tulsa38-31W----
13@ North Texas40-28W-2.5L56U
14vs Navy20-34L----
18@ NC State26-21W+6.0W58.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS4-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off72thRush Off40thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off51thPass Def16thRush Def84thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def29th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.01654th-0.00751th
Red Zone-0.05237th-0.02154th
Third Down+0.11551th+0.17629th
No Garbage Time+0.00249th-0.00551th
First Half-0.04834th-0.02856th
Second Half+0.08274th+0.01343th
Early Downs-0.01751th-0.06265th
Passing Downs+0.09872th+0.14116th
Standard Downs-0.02540th-0.09584th
Goal to Go-0.00646th-0.05661th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.6%Rush 52.4%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
17.7%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
13.5
Yards/Game
436.4
Pts/Drive
2.28
3rd Down%
45.1%
3&Out%
19.0%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — East Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEast CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points416355
Points / Game32.027.3
First Downs
Total286275
Rushing113112
Passing151135
Penalty2228
Rushing
Attempts471543
Yards2,2412,208
Yards / Carry4.84.1
Yards / Game172.4169.8
Touchdowns2321
Passing
Attempts428425
Completions258255
Completion %60.3%60.0%
Yards3,4323,059
Yards / Attempt8.07.2
Touchdowns2624
Interceptions2314
Passer Rating136.94132.51
Total Offense
Plays899968
Yards5,6735,267
Yards / Play6.35.4
Yards / Game436.4405.2
Punt Returns
Returns2412
Yards15377
Average6.46.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3139
Yards705763
Average22.719.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5260
Yards2,1232,535
Average40.842.3
Interception Returns
Returns1423
Yards204292
Touchdowns32
Fumbles
Fumbles2115
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties9990
Yards827791
Yards / Game63.660.8
Time of Possession
Per Game25:2034:40
Third Downs
Attempts184203
Conversions8380
Conversion %45.1%39.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1835
Conversions1016
Conversion %55.6%45.7%
Red Zone
Trips4947
Scores (TD + FG)3735
Score %75.5%74.5%
Touchdowns2728
TD %55.1%59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2115
Made169
Pct76.2%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4645
Made4244
Pct91.3%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts72
Made41
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →