Fourth Down Data
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IU

Indiana

HoosiersBalanced
Big Ten Conference4-8#104 (-4.60)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
17· DRating
14· FPer play
12· FConsistency
6· FBig plays
Defense
39· DRating
37· DPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
19· DRed-zone O
34· DRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.127
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.148
Defensive EPA/play
+0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.0%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.165
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.070
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.38
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.64
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.77
own return game
Return Defense
-0.55
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#104
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#114
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#39
recruiting 65 spots higher
10 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Indiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
12th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
14th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
10th
Explosiveness
6th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
15th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive EPA4822Arizona State2023OA -0.086 / -0.041similar: run defense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4473Akron2024OA -0.044 / -0.031similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate4184Tulsa2024OA -0.064 / -0.038similar: run defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3975Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: havoc rate, run defense, pass defense387

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Illinois23-20W----
2vs Idaho35-22W-24.5L52.5O
3vs Western Kentucky33-30W-6.5L61O
4@ Cincinnati24-45L+16.5L57.25O
5@ Nebraska21-35L+5.5L60U
6vs Michigan10-31L+22.5W57.5U
7vs Maryland33-38L+11.0W61.5O
8@ Rutgers17-24L+3.0L48U
10vs Penn State14-45L+14.0L50.5O
11@ Ohio State14-56L+40.0L57.5O
12@ Michigan State39-31W+10.5W47.5O
13vs Purdue16-30L+10.5L54U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off13thRush Off20thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off25thPass Def24thRush Def47thRed Zone Def35th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.13914th+0.01933th
Red Zone-0.17319th+0.05235th
Third Down-0.07425th+0.05350th
No Garbage Time-0.15512th+0.02136th
First Half-0.10726th+0.03828th
Second Half-0.17210th+0.00039th
Early Downs-0.12115th+0.02129th
Passing Downs-0.17513th+0.09024th
Standard Downs-0.11820th-0.01447th
Goal to Go-0.11537th-0.17369th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.9%Rush 45.1%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
14.8%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
328.3
Pts/Drive
1.53
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
29.5%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Indiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIndianaOpponents
Scoring
Points279407
Points / Game23.333.9
First Downs
Total231276
Rushing81105
Passing117149
Penalty3322
Rushing
Attempts396507
Yards1,3302,101
Yards / Carry3.44.1
Yards / Game110.8175.1
Touchdowns1519
Passing
Attempts483409
Completions261262
Completion %54.0%64.1%
Yards2,6093,290
Yards / Attempt5.48.0
Touchdowns1630
Interceptions137
Passer Rating104.96152.41
Total Offense
Plays879916
Yards3,9395,391
Yards / Play4.55.9
Yards / Game328.3449.3
Punt Returns
Returns1229
Yards44272
Average3.79.4
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns3018
Yards717417
Average23.923.2
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts7764
Yards3,3252,630
Average43.241.1
Interception Returns
Returns713
Yards10112
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1015
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties6089
Yards528821
Yards / Game44.068.4
Time of Possession
Per Game25:3434:11
Third Downs
Attempts191184
Conversions6478
Conversion %33.5%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2318
Conversions98
Conversion %39.1%44.4%
Red Zone
Trips4354
Scores (TD + FG)3243
Score %74.4%79.6%
Touchdowns2234
TD %51.2%63.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2020
Made1413
Pct70.0%65.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2751
Made2750
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts62
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →