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ASU
Arizona State
Sun DevilsBalancedBig 12 Conference3-9#126 (-7.66)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
7· FOverall
Offense
11· FRating
12· FPer play
12· FConsistency
14· FBig plays
Defense
21· DRating
14· FPer play
3· FConsistency
Situational
33· DRed-zone O
79· BRed-zone D
27· D3rd down O
39· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.086
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.096
Defensive EPA/play
+0.088
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
50.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.185
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.52
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.76
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.68
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#126
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#125
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#37
recruiting 89 spots higher
11 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arizona State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense16th
Opp-adjusted defense33th
Offensive EPA/play13th
Defensive EPA/play13th
Offensive success rate13th
Explosiveness14th
Defensive havoc40th
Points per drive11th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Indiana2022OA -0.127 / -0.010similar: run defense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate4472Ball State2017OA -0.115 / -0.131similar: passing offense, turnover rate, pass defense4033Vanderbilt2021OA -0.106 / -0.066similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3794Kansas2017OA -0.077 / -0.050similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3755Utah State2020OA -0.039 / -0.053similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, TD drive rate362
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Southern Utah | 24-21 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Oklahoma State | 15-27 | L | +2.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Fresno State | 0-29 | L | +3.0 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 4 | vs USC | 28-42 | L | +34.5 | W | 62 | O |
| 5 | @ California | 21-24 | L | +12.5 | W | 47.75 | U |
| 6 | vs Colorado | 24-27 | L | +4.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 8 | @ Washington | 7-15 | L | +26.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 9 | vs Washington State | 38-27 | W | +6.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Utah | 3-55 | L | +11.0 | L | 41.5 | O |
| 11 | @ UCLA | 17-7 | W | +17.0 | W | 44.25 | U |
| 12 | vs Oregon | 13-49 | L | +23.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 13 | vs Arizona | 23-59 | L | +10.5 | L | 50 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS6-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.102 | 11th | +0.070 | 21th |
| Red Zone | -0.074 | 33th | -0.144 | 80th |
| Third Down | +0.084 | 27th | +0.210 | 39th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.098 | 12th | +0.088 | 13th |
| First Half | -0.038 | 30th | +0.168 | 5th |
| Second Half | -0.161 | 6th | -0.048 | 71th |
| Early Downs | -0.053 | 40th | +0.019 | 30th |
| Passing Downs | -0.113 | 14th | +0.119 | 27th |
| Standard Downs | -0.096 | 17th | +0.046 | 30th |
| Goal to Go | +0.135 | 75th | -0.266 | 82th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 54.1%Rush 45.9%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.6%
TO Margin
-0.9
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
322.3
Pts/Drive
1.52
3rd Down%
31.8%
3&Out%
25.2%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Arizona State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arizona State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 213 | 382 |
| Points / Game | 17.8 | 31.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 225 | 250 |
| Rushing | 90 | 91 |
| Passing | 110 | 140 |
| Penalty | 25 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 374 | 381 |
| Yards | 1,343 | 1,602 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 111.9 | 133.5 |
| Touchdowns | 17 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 440 | 419 |
| Completions | 243 | 271 |
| Completion % | 55.2% | 64.7% |
| Yards | 2,524 | 3,160 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.7 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 28 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 103.05 | 147.69 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 814 | 800 |
| Yards | 3,867 | 4,762 |
| Yards / Play | 4.8 | 6.0 |
| Yards / Game | 322.3 | 396.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 13 |
| Yards | 100 | 148 |
| Average | 10.0 | 11.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 31 | 15 |
| Yards | 710 | 246 |
| Average | 22.9 | 16.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 54 | 46 |
| Yards | 2,095 | 2,109 |
| Average | 38.8 | 45.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 14 |
| Yards | 47 | 206 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 13 | 17 |
| Lost | 6 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 87 |
| Yards | 617 | 722 |
| Yards / Game | 51.4 | 60.2 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:17 | 29:43 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 170 | 161 |
| Conversions | 54 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 31.8% | 41.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 38 | 21 |
| Conversions | 18 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 47.4% | 57.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 32 | 54 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 44 |
| Score % | 90.6% | 81.5% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 29 |
| TD % | 59.4% | 53.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 25 |
| Made | 11 | 20 |
| Pct | 68.8% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 20 | 44 |
| Made | 20 | 44 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 2 |
| Made | 5 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.