Fourth Down Data
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USU

Utah State

AggiesBalanced
Pac-12 Conference1-5#103 (-5.12)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

20· DOverall
Offense
9· FRating
7· FPer play
5· FConsistency
9· FBig plays
Defense
9· FRating
2· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.053
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.195
Defensive EPA/play
+0.223
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.8%
Def Success Rate
52.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.419
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.044
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.24

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+3.06
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.67
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.72
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.90
own return game
Return Defense
+0.76
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#103
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#103
model & market agree
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Utah State ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
12th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
2th
Offensive success rate
3th
Explosiveness
9th
Defensive havoc
29th
Points per drive
6th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: run defense, pass defense, defensive EPA4692Vanderbilt2019OA -0.139 / -0.103similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3983Arkansas2019OA -0.077 / -0.071similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3894Kent State2024OA -0.089 / -0.075similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate3805Southern Miss2024OA -0.070 / -0.059similar: run defense, offensive success rate, passing offense377

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
8@ Boise State13-42L+16.5L52.5O
9vs San Diego State7-38L+7.5L43.5O
10@ Nevada9-34L----
11vs Fresno State16-35L+10.0L55.5U
13vs New Mexico41-27W+12.5L51U
14vs Air Force7-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-5
16.7%
O/U Record
3-3
50.0%
Straight Up
1-5
16.7%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS0-2
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off4thRush Off13thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off45thPass Def4thRush Def5thRed Zone Def52th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.1686th+0.1902th
Red Zone-0.21413th-0.01652th
Third Down+0.01945th+0.3538th
No Garbage Time-0.2135th+0.2232th
First Half-0.1918th+0.2780th
Second Half-0.14811th+0.08130th
Early Downs-0.2461th+0.09412th
Passing Downs-0.2754th+0.2794th
Standard Downs-0.10013th+0.1545th
Goal to Go-0.4747th+0.4137th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.0%Rush 53.0%
Havoc/Game
12.3
Havoc Rate
16.2%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
9.3
Yards/Game
275.8
Pts/Drive
1.24
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
36.2%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Utah State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUtah StateOpponents
Scoring
Points93211
Points / Game15.535.2
First Downs
Total82156
Rushing3867
Passing3478
Penalty1011
Rushing
Attempts192252
Yards8401,348
Yards / Carry4.45.3
Yards / Game140.0224.7
Touchdowns414
Passing
Attempts170192
Completions89130
Completion %52.4%67.7%
Yards8151,564
Yards / Attempt4.88.1
Touchdowns614
Interceptions52
Passer Rating98.39158.11
Total Offense
Plays362444
Yards1,6552,912
Yards / Play4.66.6
Yards / Game275.8485.3
Punt Returns
Returns59
Yards2213
Average4.41.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2314
Yards564243
Average24.517.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3722
Yards1,507834
Average40.737.9
Interception Returns
Returns25
Yards1143
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles95
Lost52
Penalties
Penalties3236
Yards284314
Yards / Game47.352.3
Time of Possession
Per Game25:5634:04
Third Downs
Attempts9282
Conversions3538
Conversion %38.0%46.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1014
Conversions511
Conversion %50.0%78.6%
Red Zone
Trips824
Scores (TD + FG)619
Score %75.0%79.2%
Touchdowns415
TD %50.0%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts37
Made35
Pct100.0%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1228
Made1028
Pct83.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →