Fourth Down Data
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TLSA

Tulsa

Golden HurricaneBalanced
American Conference3-9#131 (-12.05)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

3· FOverall
Offense
3· FRating
6· FPer play
2· FConsistency
13· FBig plays
Defense
6· FRating
18· DPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.064
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.169
Defensive EPA/play
+0.070
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.4%
Def Success Rate
45.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.239
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.109
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.34

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.10
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.77
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.18
own return game
Return Defense
-0.16
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#131
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#107
market 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 51 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
5th
Opp-adjusted defense
13th
Offensive EPA/play
6th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
7th
Explosiveness
13th
Defensive havoc
28th
Points per drive
4th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2022OA -0.127 / -0.010similar: run defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3972Texas State2017OA -0.190 / -0.057similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate3913Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate3864New Mexico State2018OA -0.133 / -0.120similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3745Oklahoma State2025OA -0.103 / -0.061similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate365

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northwestern State62-28W----
2@ Arkansas State24-28L+6.5W64.5U
3vs Oklahoma State10-45L+19.0L63.5U
4@ Louisiana Tech23-20W+2.5W57.5U
5@ North Texas20-52L+6.5L68O
6vs Army7-49L+12.0L51O
8@ Temple10-20L+2.5L52.5U
9vs UTSA46-45W+8.0W54O
10@ UAB21-59L+3.0L58O
12vs East Carolina31-38L----
13@ South Florida30-63L+17.0L60.5O
14vs Florida Atlantic16-63L+1.5L57O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS4-7
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off34thRush Off13thRed Zone Off51th3rd Down Off44thPass Def44thRush Def19thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06718th+0.05525th
Red Zone+0.01751th+0.3225th
Third Down+0.07644th+0.18826th
No Garbage Time-0.11612th+0.06919th
First Half-0.1717th+0.09715th
Second Half+0.04961th+0.01145th
Early Downs-0.04036th+0.06613th
Passing Downs-0.03134th+0.02944th
Standard Downs-0.08813th+0.06919th
Goal to Go-0.4196th+0.10931th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.3%Rush 50.7%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
16.2%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
10.3
Yards/Game
389.7
Pts/Drive
1.34
3rd Down%
36.7%
3&Out%
34.2%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points300510
Points / Game25.042.5
First Downs
Total247266
Rushing9199
Passing122154
Penalty3413
Rushing
Attempts451447
Yards1,8132,169
Yards / Carry4.04.9
Yards / Game151.1180.8
Touchdowns1127
Passing
Attempts438396
Completions248261
Completion %56.6%65.9%
Yards2,8633,792
Yards / Attempt6.59.6
Touchdowns2338
Interceptions129
Passer Rating123.38173.47
Total Offense
Plays889843
Yards4,6765,961
Yards / Play5.37.1
Yards / Game389.7496.8
Punt Returns
Returns2125
Yards189412
Average9.016.5
Touchdowns12
Kickoff Returns
Returns2525
Yards711453
Average28.418.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts7155
Yards3,0262,245
Average42.640.8
Interception Returns
Returns912
Yards66136
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1815
Lost107
Penalties
Penalties7197
Yards612963
Yards / Game51.080.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4430:15
Third Downs
Attempts196160
Conversions7269
Conversion %36.7%43.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3120
Conversions1010
Conversion %32.3%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips3842
Scores (TD + FG)2738
Score %71.1%90.5%
Touchdowns2135
TD %55.3%83.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1513
Made107
Pct66.7%53.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3567
Made3465
Pct97.1%97.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →