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NMSU
New Mexico State
AggiesPass-HeavyConference USA3-9#132 (-14.44)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
1· FOverall
Offense
6· FRating
12· FPer play
15· DConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
5· FRating
22· DPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
13· FRed-zone D
27· D3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.133
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.120
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.129
Defensive EPA/play
+0.066
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.5%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.195
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.52
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.28
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#132
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense10th
Opp-adjusted defense10th
Offensive EPA/play12th
Defensive EPA/play23th
Offensive success rate15th
Explosiveness17th
Defensive havoc16th
Points per drive11th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA4762Northwestern2022OA -0.118 / -0.038similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4003Arizona2020OA -0.042 / -0.021similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3974UNLV2020OA -0.027 / -0.044similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3945Colorado2022OA -0.222 / -0.093similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, passing offense393
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | vs Wyoming | 7-29 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 1 | @ Minnesota | 10-48 | L | +21.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 2 | @ Utah State | 13-60 | L | +23.0 | L | 62 | O |
| 3 | vs New Mexico | 25-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 4 | @ UTEP | 27-20 | W | -4.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Liberty | 49-41 | W | +3.0 | W | 64 | O |
| 7 | @ Louisiana | 38-66 | L | +7.5 | L | 66.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Georgia Southern | 31-48 | L | +9.5 | L | 52.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Texas State | 20-27 | L | - | - | 56 | U |
| 10 | vs Alcorn State | 52-42 | W | -13.0 | L | - | - |
| 12 | @ BYU | 10-45 | L | +25.5 | L | 58 | U |
| 13 | @ Liberty | 21-28 | L | +7.0 | P | 72.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
2-7-1
22.2%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
3-8
27.3%
Home ATS1-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS1-1
Underdog ATS1-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLP
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.124 | 11th | +0.049 | 26th |
| Red Zone | -0.141 | 17th | +0.207 | 14th |
| Third Down | -0.063 | 27th | +0.212 | 19th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.129 | 12th | +0.061 | 25th |
| First Half | -0.145 | 11th | +0.046 | 31th |
| Second Half | -0.102 | 14th | +0.052 | 33th |
| Early Downs | -0.128 | 9th | -0.061 | 67th |
| Passing Downs | -0.164 | 9th | +0.167 | 13th |
| Standard Downs | -0.097 | 17th | -0.011 | 49th |
| Goal to Go | -0.174 | 16th | -0.011 | 66th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 60.3%Rush 39.7%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
370.5
Pts/Drive
1.52
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
26.6%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | New Mexico State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 303 | 496 |
| Points / Game | 25.3 | 41.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 246 | 296 |
| Rushing | 78 | 166 |
| Passing | 139 | 113 |
| Penalty | 29 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 354 | 636 |
| Yards | 1,264 | 3,221 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 105.3 | 268.4 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 38 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 537 | 325 |
| Completions | 297 | 192 |
| Completion % | 55.3% | 59.1% |
| Yards | 3,182 | 2,490 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.9 | 7.7 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 108.95 | 139.43 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 891 | 961 |
| Yards | 4,446 | 5,711 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 370.5 | 475.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 25 |
| Yards | 127 | 387 |
| Average | 7.1 | 15.5 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 36 | 24 |
| Yards | 758 | 570 |
| Average | 21.1 | 23.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 76 | 63 |
| Yards | 3,014 | 2,390 |
| Average | 39.7 | 37.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 16 |
| Yards | 124 | 291 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 17 |
| Lost | 9 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 76 | 86 |
| Yards | 634 | 808 |
| Yards / Game | 52.8 | 67.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 25:10 | 34:50 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 196 | 194 |
| Conversions | 71 | 90 |
| Conversion % | 36.2% | 46.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 13 |
| Conversions | 10 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 47.6% | 61.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 40 | 53 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 48 |
| Score % | 77.5% | 90.6% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 37 |
| TD % | 52.5% | 69.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 21 |
| Made | 12 | 18 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 85.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 37 | 62 |
| Made | 37 | 60 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 96.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.