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BALL
Ball State
CardinalsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference4-8#116 (-5.94)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
15· DOverall
Offense
12· FRating
13· FPer play
22· DConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
59· CPer play
63· CConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
8· F3rd down O
97· A+3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.109
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.092
Defensive EPA/play
-0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.5%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.059
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.65
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.94
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.23
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#116
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#109
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 40 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ball State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense10th
Opp-adjusted defense41th
Offensive EPA/play13th
Defensive EPA/play60th
Offensive success rate21th
Explosiveness24th
Defensive havoc51th
Points per drive16th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Northern Illinois2018OA -0.095 / +0.071similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3632Bowling Green2025OA -0.088 / -0.006similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3573Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate3544Central Michigan2024OA -0.040 / -0.007similar: passing offense, rushing offense, TD drive rate3525Charlotte2018OA -0.106 / +0.000similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA351
2023 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Kentucky | 14-44 | L | +26.5 | L | 49 | O |
| 2 | @ Georgia | 3-45 | L | +42.0 | P | 53 | U |
| 3 | vs Indiana State | 45-7 | W | -22.5 | W | 37.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Georgia Southern | 3-40 | L | +6.5 | L | 61 | U |
| 5 | @ Western Michigan | 24-42 | L | +1.0 | L | 50 | O |
| 6 | @ Eastern Michigan | 10-24 | L | +2.5 | L | 43 | U |
| 7 | vs Toledo | 6-13 | L | +17.0 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Central Michigan | 24-17 | W | +4.5 | W | 41.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Bowling Green | 21-24 | L | +9.0 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Northern Illinois | 20-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Kent State | 34-3 | W | -13.0 | W | 42 | U |
| 13 | vs Miami (OH) | 15-17 | L | +6.5 | W | 35.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-0
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WWWWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.085 | 16th | -0.036 | 68th |
| Red Zone | -0.094 | 28th | -0.037 | 55th |
| Third Down | -0.092 | 8th | -0.137 | 98th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.092 | 13th | -0.022 | 61th |
| First Half | -0.167 | 2th | -0.027 | 67th |
| Second Half | -0.007 | 45th | -0.048 | 70th |
| Early Downs | -0.129 | 12th | -0.049 | 56th |
| Passing Downs | -0.057 | 24th | -0.017 | 73th |
| Standard Downs | -0.102 | 16th | -0.048 | 61th |
| Goal to Go | -0.275 | 8th | -0.169 | 73th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.1%Rush 60.9%
Havoc/Game
11.6
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
308.1
Pts/Drive
1.65
3rd Down%
37.7%
3&Out%
23.9%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 12 games — Ball State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ball State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 219 | 293 |
| Points / Game | 18.3 | 24.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 217 | 216 |
| Rushing | 112 | 78 |
| Passing | 84 | 114 |
| Penalty | 21 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 473 | 375 |
| Yards | 2,058 | 1,339 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 171.5 | 111.6 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 304 | 357 |
| Completions | 180 | 215 |
| Completion % | 59.2% | 60.2% |
| Yards | 1,639 | 2,451 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.4 | 6.9 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 108.35 | 130.81 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 777 | 732 |
| Yards | 3,697 | 3,790 |
| Yards / Play | 4.8 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 308.1 | 315.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 20 |
| Yards | 15 | 263 |
| Average | 1.1 | 13.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 32 |
| Yards | 452 | 790 |
| Average | 17.4 | 24.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 59 | 52 |
| Yards | 2,468 | 2,128 |
| Average | 41.8 | 40.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 9 |
| Yards | 49 | 79 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 14 |
| Lost | 7 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 62 | 61 |
| Yards | 542 | 546 |
| Yards / Game | 45.2 | 45.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:51 | 27:19 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 167 | 150 |
| Conversions | 63 | 52 |
| Conversion % | 37.7% | 34.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 20 |
| Conversions | 10 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 55.6% | 60.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 37 | 39 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 31 | 32 |
| Score % | 83.8% | 82.1% |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 21 |
| TD % | 51.4% | 53.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 22 |
| Made | 15 | 16 |
| Pct | 71.4% | 72.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 35 |
| Made | 24 | 35 |
| Pct | 96.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.