Fourth Down Data
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MSST

Mississippi State

BulldogsBalanced
Southeastern Conference5-7#89 (-2.91)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
17· DRating
18· DPer play
12· FConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
56· CPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
17· D3rd down O
89· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.053
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.047
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.081
Defensive EPA/play
-0.018
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.062
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.107
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#89
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#75
market 14 higher
Recruiting Rank
#31
recruiting 58 spots higher
15 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
57th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
15th
Defensive havoc
37th
Points per drive
17th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Carolina2019OA -0.095 / +0.084similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate3962Northwestern2024OA -0.062 / +0.010similar: TD drive rate, run defense, havoc rate3883Virginia2024OA -0.035 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3884Bowling Green2025OA -0.088 / -0.006similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3685San Diego State2018OA -0.092 / +0.039similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, pass defense365

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeastern Louisiana48-7W-31.0W59.5U
2vs Arizona31-24W-9.0L60U
3vs LSU14-41L+9.5L54.5O
4@ South Carolina30-37L+6.0L48.5O
5vs Alabama17-40L+14.5L46.5O
6vs Western Michigan41-28W-20.5L56.5O
8@ Arkansas7-3W+6.0W48.5U
9@ Auburn13-27L+6.5L43.5U
10vs Kentucky3-24L+3.5L46U
11@ Texas A&M10-51L+19.0L43O
12vs Southern Miss41-20W+10.0P55.5U
13vs Ole Miss7-17L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-8-1
27.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS1-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS1-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLWP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off38thRush Off14thRed Zone Off19th3rd Down Off17thPass Def19thRush Def83thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def90th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06023th-0.01559th
Red Zone-0.16119th+0.06629th
Third Down-0.00117th-0.03690th
No Garbage Time-0.08215th-0.00554th
First Half-0.1389th+0.04935th
Second Half+0.02357th-0.08282th
Early Downs-0.09024th-0.06161th
Passing Downs+0.01438th+0.15019th
Standard Downs-0.10914th-0.09683th
Goal to Go+0.06257th+0.33813th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
17.4%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
12.1
Yards/Game
328.6
Pts/Drive
1.67
3rd Down%
30.8%
3&Out%
26.0%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points262319
Points / Game21.826.6
First Downs
Total199220
Rushing7998
Passing106103
Penalty1419
Rushing
Attempts401449
Yards1,7611,751
Yards / Carry4.43.9
Yards / Game146.8145.9
Touchdowns1214
Passing
Attempts348340
Completions201231
Completion %57.8%67.9%
Yards2,1822,456
Yards / Attempt6.37.2
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions107
Passer Rating118.90144.88
Total Offense
Plays749789
Yards3,9434,207
Yards / Play5.35.3
Yards / Game328.6350.6
Punt Returns
Returns169
Yards18963
Average11.87.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2319
Yards550418
Average23.922.0
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5857
Yards2,3192,480
Average40.043.5
Interception Returns
Returns710
Yards6175
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles918
Lost45
Penalties
Penalties7567
Yards682546
Yards / Game56.845.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4431:16
Third Downs
Attempts159167
Conversions4957
Conversion %30.8%34.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2428
Conversions1016
Conversion %41.7%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips3936
Scores (TD + FG)3133
Score %79.5%91.7%
Touchdowns2024
TD %51.3%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2317
Made1716
Pct73.9%94.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2937
Made2937
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →