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SDSU
San Diego State
AztecsRun-HeavyPac-12 Conference7-6#83 (-1.10)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
38· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
20· DPer play
26· DConsistency
6· FBig plays
Defense
72· BRating
58· CPer play
75· BConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.092
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.039
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.093
Defensive EPA/play
-0.041
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.052
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.63
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#83
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#56
recruiting 27 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense18th
Opp-adjusted defense64th
Offensive EPA/play20th
Defensive EPA/play59th
Offensive success rate27th
Explosiveness6th
Defensive havoc40th
Points per drive18th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Charlotte2018OA -0.106 / +0.000similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate4222Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, turnover rate3673Louisiana Tech2024OA -0.068 / +0.030similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3424Georgia State2017OA -0.067 / -0.042similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3395Colorado State2021OA -0.039 / -0.035similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, defensive EPA332
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Stanford | 10-31 | L | +2.5 | L | 49 | U |
| 2 | vs Sacramento State | 28-14 | W | -25.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Arizona State | 28-21 | W | +4.5 | W | 48.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Eastern Michigan | 23-20 | W | -13.0 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 6 | @ Boise State | 19-13 | W | +13.5 | W | 50 | U |
| 7 | vs Air Force | 21-17 | W | -11.0 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 8 | vs San José State | 16-13 | W | -25.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Nevada | 24-28 | L | +1.0 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 10 | @ New Mexico | 31-23 | W | -12.0 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 11 | vs UNLV | 24-27 | L | -24.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Fresno State | 14-23 | L | +13.0 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Hawai'i | 30-31 | L | -18.0 | L | 54 | O |
| 17 | @ Ohio | 0-27 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
3-9
25.0%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-7
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.092 | 17th | -0.043 | 64th |
| Red Zone | -0.267 | 7th | +0.046 | 39th |
| Third Down | +0.023 | 42th | +0.055 | 43th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.093 | 17th | -0.043 | 61th |
| First Half | -0.079 | 25th | -0.046 | 59th |
| Second Half | -0.107 | 11th | -0.039 | 67th |
| Early Downs | -0.062 | 26th | -0.100 | 84th |
| Passing Downs | -0.138 | 14th | +0.014 | 49th |
| Standard Downs | -0.065 | 21th | -0.074 | 77th |
| Goal to Go | +0.047 | 45th | +0.226 | 27th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 37.5%Rush 62.5%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
348.8
Pts/Drive
1.63
3rd Down%
35.0%
3&Out%
21.2%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | San Diego State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 268 | 288 |
| Points / Game | 20.6 | 22.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 225 | 216 |
| Rushing | 105 | 77 |
| Passing | 105 | 120 |
| Penalty | 15 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 519 | 453 |
| Yards | 2,102 | 1,349 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.1 | 3.0 |
| Yards / Game | 161.7 | 103.8 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 312 | 401 |
| Completions | 166 | 242 |
| Completion % | 53.2% | 60.3% |
| Yards | 2,433 | 3,001 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.8 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 18 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 129.03 | 133.04 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 831 | 854 |
| Yards | 4,535 | 4,350 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 348.8 | 334.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 25 |
| Yards | 114 | 139 |
| Average | 5.0 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 32 | 13 |
| Yards | 631 | 259 |
| Average | 19.7 | 19.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 68 | 74 |
| Yards | 2,844 | 3,048 |
| Average | 41.8 | 41.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 7 |
| Yards | 67 | 51 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 16 |
| Lost | 11 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 93 | 58 |
| Yards | 803 | 543 |
| Yards / Game | 61.8 | 41.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:18 | 29:42 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 180 | 193 |
| Conversions | 63 | 80 |
| Conversion % | 35.0% | 41.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 15 |
| Conversions | 10 | 7 |
| Conversion % | 55.6% | 46.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 36 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 29 | 34 |
| Score % | 80.6% | 89.5% |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 25 |
| TD % | 50.0% | 65.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 17 |
| Made | 17 | 13 |
| Pct | 77.3% | 76.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 31 |
| Made | 27 | 27 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 87.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 4 |
| Made | 2 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.