Fourth Down Data
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GAST

Georgia State

PanthersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference7-5#114 (-14.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

15· DOverall
Offense
11· FRating
32· DPer play
33· DConsistency
8· FBig plays
Defense
27· DRating
65· CPer play
77· BConsistency
Situational
9· FRed-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
41· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.067
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.064
Defensive EPA/play
-0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.9%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.008
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.047
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.59

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.96
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.44
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.17
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
20th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
65th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
8th
Defensive havoc
25th
Points per drive
15th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Charlotte2018OA -0.106 / +0.000similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3542San Diego State2018OA -0.092 / +0.039similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, TD drive rate3403Bowling Green2026OA -0.093 / -0.073similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, passing offense3384Iowa State2022OA -0.032 / +0.130similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, rushing offense3375Tulsa2019OA -0.027 / +0.059similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense333

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Tennessee State10-17L+4.5W54U
3@ Penn State0-56L+37.5L54O
4@ Charlotte28-0W+1.0W50U
6@ Coastal Carolina27-21W-1.0W51U
7@ UL Monroe47-37W+3.5W57O
8vs Troy10-34L+7.5L52U
9vs South Alabama21-13W-1.0W50.5U
10@ Georgia Southern21-17W-5.0L49.5U
11@ Texas State33-30W-5.5L51.5O
13vs App State10-31L+6.5L51U
14vs Idaho10-24L-7.5L45U
16vs Western Kentucky27-17W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
7-4
63.6%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off28thRush Off32thRed Zone Off9th3rd Down Off70thPass Def36thRush Def76thRed Zone Def56th3rd Down Def41th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.08029th-0.05859th
Red Zone-0.2049th-0.03956th
Third Down+0.09870th+0.02741th
No Garbage Time-0.07331th-0.06863th
First Half-0.07929th-0.07764th
Second Half-0.08031th-0.03655th
Early Downs-0.10022th-0.10378th
Passing Downs-0.09428th+0.03236th
Standard Downs-0.07232th-0.10876th
Goal to Go-0.31711th-0.12364th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.5%Rush 51.5%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
15.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
388.0
Pts/Drive
1.59
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
17.5%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points244297
Points / Game20.324.8
First Downs
Total239222
Rushing8683
Passing136128
Penalty1711
Rushing
Attempts439396
Yards1,4081,637
Yards / Carry3.24.1
Yards / Game117.3136.4
Touchdowns1214
Passing
Attempts413406
Completions265256
Completion %64.2%63.1%
Yards3,2483,017
Yards / Attempt7.97.4
Touchdowns1523
Interceptions910
Passer Rating137.85139.24
Total Offense
Plays852802
Yards4,6564,654
Yards / Play5.55.8
Yards / Game388.0387.8
Punt Returns
Returns1519
Yards96190
Average6.410.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3037
Yards614863
Average20.523.3
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts6261
Yards2,4882,673
Average40.143.8
Interception Returns
Returns109
Yards67240
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1815
Lost127
Penalties
Penalties6271
Yards569578
Yards / Game47.448.2
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0128:59
Third Downs
Attempts182174
Conversions7867
Conversion %42.9%38.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1424
Conversions714
Conversion %50.0%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips3640
Scores (TD + FG)2431
Score %66.7%77.5%
Touchdowns1624
TD %44.4%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2319
Made1211
Pct52.2%57.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3037
Made2836
Pct93.3%97.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →