Fourth Down Data
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ISU

Iowa State

CyclonesBalanced
Big 12 Conference4-8#73 (-0.31)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

46· COverall
Offense
23· DRating
29· DPer play
25· DConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
88· BPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
49· C3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.130
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.080
Defensive EPA/play
-0.134
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.2%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.054
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.114
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.83
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.80
own return game
Return Defense
+0.24
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#73
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#57
market 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#53
recruiting 20 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Iowa State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
40th
Opp-adjusted defense
90th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
89th
Offensive success rate
27th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
45th
Points per drive
21th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2020OA -0.011 / +0.020similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3612Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3613Buffalo2025OA -0.180 / -0.001similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3484TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3425Georgia State2017OA -0.067 / -0.042similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, rushing offense337

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeast Missouri State42-10W-34.0L54.5U
2@ Iowa10-7W+6.5W41.5U
3vs Ohio43-10W-18.5W48O
4vs Baylor24-31L-2.5L45.5O
5@ Kansas11-14L-3.0L59U
6vs Kansas State9-10L+1.0P45U
7@ Texas21-24L+16.5W49.5U
9vs Oklahoma13-27L+1.5L55.5U
10vs West Virginia31-14W-7.0W50.5U
11@ Oklahoma State14-20L-1.5L48.5U
12vs Texas Tech10-14L-3.5L48U
13@ TCU14-62L+10.0L47.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off21thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off50thPass Def87thRush Def67thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def97th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07829th-0.10984th
Red Zone-0.23913th+0.2317th
Third Down+0.07450th-0.32497th
No Garbage Time-0.07730th-0.13689th
First Half-0.11623th-0.07270th
Second Half-0.04140th-0.15191th
Early Downs-0.12016th-0.02850th
Passing Downs-0.01150th-0.18687th
Standard Downs-0.11621th-0.07067th
Goal to Go-0.28017th+0.3417th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.9%Rush 45.1%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
17.8%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
369.8
Pts/Drive
1.64
3rd Down%
41.9%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — Iowa State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIowa StateOpponents
Scoring
Points242243
Points / Game20.220.3
First Downs
Total245186
Rushing7379
Passing15389
Penalty1918
Rushing
Attempts393403
Yards1,2961,288
Yards / Carry3.33.2
Yards / Game108.0107.3
Touchdowns108
Passing
Attempts479322
Completions313190
Completion %65.3%59.0%
Yards3,1412,139
Yards / Attempt6.66.6
Touchdowns1920
Interceptions157
Passer Rating127.25130.96
Total Offense
Plays872725
Yards4,4373,427
Yards / Play5.14.7
Yards / Game369.8285.6
Punt Returns
Returns1311
Yards8729
Average6.72.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2137
Yards348745
Average16.620.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5570
Yards2,1952,905
Average39.941.5
Interception Returns
Returns715
Yards84186
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1517
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties6758
Yards548506
Yards / Game45.742.2
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0727:53
Third Downs
Attempts191157
Conversions8046
Conversion %41.9%29.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2717
Conversions1510
Conversion %55.6%58.8%
Red Zone
Trips4432
Scores (TD + FG)3129
Score %70.5%90.6%
Touchdowns2222
TD %50.0%68.8%
Field Goals
Attempts2316
Made1311
Pct56.5%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2830
Made2730
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →