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BUF
Buffalo
BullsBalancedMid-American Conference5-7#112 (-11.65)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
18· DOverall
Offense
7· FRating
8· FPer play
7· FConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
41· CRating
75· BPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
12· FRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
9· F3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.180
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.001
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.144
Defensive EPA/play
-0.085
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.9%
Def Success Rate
42.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.059
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.082
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.75
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.58
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.60
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#112
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#68
market 44 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense2th
Opp-adjusted defense53th
Offensive EPA/play8th
Defensive EPA/play75th
Offensive success rate10th
Explosiveness6th
Defensive havoc69th
Points per drive18th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Duke2019OA -0.121 / +0.112similar: pass defense, havoc rate, offensive EPA4502Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate4263Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive EPA4104Florida State2018OA -0.108 / +0.043similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense4075Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: run defense, TD drive rate, takeaway rate406
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Minnesota | 10-23 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Saint Francis (PA) | 45-6 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Kent State | 31-28 | W | -23.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Troy | 17-21 | L | -16.5 | L | 26.5 | O |
| 5 | vs UConn | 17-20 | L | +6.5 | W | 37.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Eastern Michigan | 31-30 | W | +4.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 8 | @ Massachusetts | 28-21 | W | -16.0 | L | 47 | O |
| 9 | vs Akron | 16-24 | L | -10.0 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Bowling Green | 28-3 | W | +2.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Central Michigan | 19-38 | L | +2.5 | L | 38.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Miami (OH) | 20-37 | L | +7.0 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 14 | vs Ohio | 26-31 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-4
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.141 | 4th | -0.097 | 84th |
| Red Zone | -0.209 | 13th | +0.039 | 40th |
| Third Down | -0.202 | 9th | -0.183 | 93th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.144 | 7th | -0.085 | 76th |
| First Half | -0.197 | 4th | -0.186 | 95th |
| Second Half | -0.084 | 21th | -0.009 | 46th |
| Early Downs | -0.097 | 13th | -0.060 | 69th |
| Passing Downs | -0.096 | 28th | -0.168 | 88th |
| Standard Downs | -0.165 | 3th | -0.058 | 68th |
| Goal to Go | -0.100 | 34th | +0.415 | 1th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
361.3
Pts/Drive
1.75
3rd Down%
35.0%
3&Out%
27.7%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 288 | 282 |
| Points / Game | 24.0 | 23.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 232 | 222 |
| Rushing | 99 | 106 |
| Passing | 120 | 98 |
| Penalty | 13 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 413 | 499 |
| Yards | 1,588 | 1,886 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 132.3 | 157.2 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 412 | 345 |
| Completions | 235 | 191 |
| Completion % | 57.0% | 55.4% |
| Yards | 2,748 | 2,237 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 121.49 | 122.03 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 825 | 844 |
| Yards | 4,336 | 4,123 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 361.3 | 343.6 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 18 |
| Yards | 229 | 107 |
| Average | 10.0 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 18 |
| Yards | 495 | 390 |
| Average | 20.6 | 21.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 65 | 74 |
| Yards | 2,909 | 3,091 |
| Average | 44.8 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 14 |
| Yards | 151 | 103 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 15 | 15 |
| Lost | 8 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 59 |
| Yards | 548 | 435 |
| Yards / Game | 45.7 | 36.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 27:51 | 31:53 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 177 | 191 |
| Conversions | 62 | 66 |
| Conversion % | 35.0% | 34.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 27 |
| Conversions | 10 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 59.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 35 | 35 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 28 | 28 |
| Score % | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 20 |
| TD % | 51.4% | 57.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 16 |
| Made | 14 | 13 |
| Pct | 82.4% | 81.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 34 |
| Made | 30 | 33 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.