← All Teams
CLT
Charlotte
49ersRun-HeavyAmerican Conference5-7#100 (-5.21)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
25· DOverall
Offense
15· DRating
24· DPer play
32· DConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
64· CPer play
76· BConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
69· CRed-zone D
60· C3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.106
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.000
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.072
Defensive EPA/play
-0.052
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.2%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.021
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.062
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.68
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.43
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.62
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
-0.33
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#100
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 23 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense16th
Opp-adjusted defense49th
Offensive EPA/play24th
Defensive EPA/play65th
Offensive success rate30th
Explosiveness22th
Defensive havoc47th
Points per drive20th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1San Diego State2018OA -0.092 / +0.039similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate4222Georgia State2017OA -0.067 / -0.042similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3543Ball State2023OA -0.109 / -0.019similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3514Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, turnover rate3445California2020OA -0.017 / +0.012similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA338
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Fordham | 34-10 | W | -16.5 | W | 56 | U |
| 2 | vs App State | 9-45 | L | +14.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Old Dominion | 28-25 | W | +1.0 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 4 | @ Massachusetts | 31-49 | L | +6.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 5 | @ UAB | 7-28 | L | +15.5 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Western Kentucky | 40-14 | W | +9.5 | W | 44 | O |
| 8 | @ Middle Tennessee | 13-21 | L | +17.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Southern Miss | 20-17 | W | +6.5 | W | 45 | U |
| 10 | @ Tennessee | 3-14 | L | +22.5 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Marshall | 13-30 | L | +13.0 | L | 42 | O |
| 12 | vs Florida International | 35-42 | L | +3.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Florida Atlantic | 27-24 | W | +16.5 | W | 54.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS6-5
Last 5 ATS
WWLLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.067 | 21th | -0.052 | 71th |
| Red Zone | -0.121 | 18th | -0.102 | 70th |
| Third Down | +0.095 | 61th | +0.061 | 40th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.085 | 20th | -0.044 | 62th |
| First Half | -0.125 | 15th | +0.006 | 42th |
| Second Half | -0.012 | 43th | -0.117 | 89th |
| Early Downs | -0.035 | 36th | -0.076 | 77th |
| Passing Downs | -0.118 | 17th | +0.070 | 39th |
| Standard Downs | -0.038 | 32th | -0.123 | 87th |
| Goal to Go | +0.131 | 62th | +0.031 | 59th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 36.6%Rush 63.4%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
343.1
Pts/Drive
1.68
3rd Down%
42.1%
3&Out%
23.8%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Charlotte | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 260 | 319 |
| Points / Game | 21.7 | 26.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 237 | 197 |
| Rushing | 119 | 64 |
| Passing | 96 | 116 |
| Penalty | 22 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 526 | 368 |
| Yards | 1,951 | 1,268 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Yards / Game | 162.6 | 105.7 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 304 | 332 |
| Completions | 182 | 219 |
| Completion % | 59.9% | 66.0% |
| Yards | 2,166 | 2,780 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 8.4 |
| Touchdowns | 10 | 20 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 125.31 | 150.76 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 830 | 700 |
| Yards | 4,117 | 4,048 |
| Yards / Play | 5.0 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 343.1 | 337.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 22 |
| Yards | 57 | 319 |
| Average | 4.8 | 14.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 27 | 20 |
| Yards | 458 | 440 |
| Average | 17.0 | 22.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 55 |
| Yards | 2,400 | 2,197 |
| Average | 40.0 | 39.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 9 | 8 |
| Yards | 194 | 91 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 17 |
| Lost | 7 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 55 |
| Yards | 565 | 536 |
| Yards / Game | 47.1 | 44.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 34:59 | 25:01 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 178 | 142 |
| Conversions | 75 | 53 |
| Conversion % | 42.1% | 37.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 17 |
| Conversions | 6 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 31.6% | 29.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 42 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 33 |
| Score % | 81.0% | 80.5% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 24 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 58.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 14 |
| Made | 17 | 9 |
| Pct | 77.3% | 64.3% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 39 |
| Made | 27 | 38 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.