Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
CAL

California

Golden BearsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-3#90 (-2.99)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

30· DOverall
Offense
21· DRating
29· DPer play
47· CConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
62· CPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
49.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.061
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.74

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.77
own return game
Return Defense
-0.20
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
30th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
30th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
31th
Explosiveness
19th
Defensive havoc
33th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate3692Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3593Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3474Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3455Charlotte2018OA -0.106 / +0.000similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA338

2020 Schedule & Results

4 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
11@ UCLA10-34L-3.5L55.5U
12@ Oregon State27-31L+1.3W52U
13vs Stanford23-24L----
14vs Oregon21-17W+10.0W58.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-2
50.0%
O/U Record
1-3
25.0%
Straight Up
1-3
25.0%
Home ATS2-0
Away ATS0-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off73thRush Off2thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off54thPass Def80thRush Def63thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.06022th-0.03069th
Red Zone-0.08730th-0.17187th
Third Down+0.09854th+0.01264th
No Garbage Time-0.04130th-0.01663th
First Half+0.09371th+0.14514th
Second Half-0.2253th-0.18892th
Early Downs-0.10513th+0.07517th
Passing Downs+0.14873th-0.07280th
Standard Downs-0.1782th-0.01563th
Goal to Go-0.28313th+0.14034th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
319.5
Pts/Drive
1.74
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
34.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 4 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points81106
Points / Game20.326.5
First Downs
Total7374
Rushing2434
Passing3735
Penalty125
Rushing
Attempts148153
Yards507677
Yards / Carry3.44.4
Yards / Game126.8169.3
Touchdowns47
Passing
Attempts138105
Completions8565
Completion %61.6%61.9%
Yards771791
Yards / Attempt5.67.5
Touchdowns67
Interceptions33
Passer Rating118.52141.47
Total Offense
Plays286258
Yards1,2781,468
Yards / Play4.55.7
Yards / Game319.5367.0
Punt Returns
Returns85
Yards4270
Average5.314.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns39
Yards55206
Average18.322.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2422
Yards917897
Average38.240.8
Interception Returns
Returns33
Yards5414
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles43
Lost22
Penalties
Penalties1827
Yards140232
Yards / Game35.058.0
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3628:24
Third Downs
Attempts6754
Conversions2522
Conversion %37.3%40.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts86
Conversions43
Conversion %50.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips1416
Scores (TD + FG)1112
Score %78.6%75.0%
Touchdowns89
TD %57.1%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts53
Made43
Pct80.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1014
Made913
Pct90.0%92.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →