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CAL
California
Golden BearsBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference1-3#90 (-2.99)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
30· DOverall
Offense
21· DRating
29· DPer play
47· CConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
62· CPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.016
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
49.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.025
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.061
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.74
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.77
own return game
Return Defense
-0.20
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense30th
Opp-adjusted defense65th
Offensive EPA/play30th
Defensive EPA/play63th
Offensive success rate31th
Explosiveness19th
Defensive havoc33th
Points per drive20th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Northwestern2023OA -0.030 / +0.013similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate3692Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3593Western Kentucky2018OA -0.103 / +0.001similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3474Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3455Charlotte2018OA -0.106 / +0.000similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA338
2020 Schedule & Results
4 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | @ UCLA | 10-34 | L | -3.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Oregon State | 27-31 | L | +1.3 | W | 52 | U |
| 13 | vs Stanford | 23-24 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 14 | vs Oregon | 21-17 | W | +10.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
2-2
50.0%
O/U Record
1-3
25.0%
Straight Up
1-3
25.0%
Home ATS2-0
Away ATS0-2
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.060 | 22th | -0.030 | 69th |
| Red Zone | -0.087 | 30th | -0.171 | 87th |
| Third Down | +0.098 | 54th | +0.012 | 64th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.041 | 30th | -0.016 | 63th |
| First Half | +0.093 | 71th | +0.145 | 14th |
| Second Half | -0.225 | 3th | -0.188 | 92th |
| Early Downs | -0.105 | 13th | +0.075 | 17th |
| Passing Downs | +0.148 | 73th | -0.072 | 80th |
| Standard Downs | -0.178 | 2th | -0.015 | 63th |
| Goal to Go | -0.283 | 13th | +0.140 | 34th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
14.8
Yards/Game
319.5
Pts/Drive
1.74
3rd Down%
37.3%
3&Out%
34.0%
Team Statistics
2020 season totals across 4 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | California | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 81 | 106 |
| Points / Game | 20.3 | 26.5 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 73 | 74 |
| Rushing | 24 | 34 |
| Passing | 37 | 35 |
| Penalty | 12 | 5 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 148 | 153 |
| Yards | 507 | 677 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 126.8 | 169.3 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 7 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 138 | 105 |
| Completions | 85 | 65 |
| Completion % | 61.6% | 61.9% |
| Yards | 771 | 791 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.6 | 7.5 |
| Touchdowns | 6 | 7 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 3 |
| Passer Rating | 118.52 | 141.47 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 286 | 258 |
| Yards | 1,278 | 1,468 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 319.5 | 367.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 5 |
| Yards | 42 | 70 |
| Average | 5.3 | 14.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 9 |
| Yards | 55 | 206 |
| Average | 18.3 | 22.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 24 | 22 |
| Yards | 917 | 897 |
| Average | 38.2 | 40.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 3 | 3 |
| Yards | 54 | 14 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 4 | 3 |
| Lost | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 18 | 27 |
| Yards | 140 | 232 |
| Yards / Game | 35.0 | 58.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:36 | 28:24 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 67 | 54 |
| Conversions | 25 | 22 |
| Conversion % | 37.3% | 40.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 8 | 6 |
| Conversions | 4 | 3 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 14 | 16 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 11 | 12 |
| Score % | 78.6% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 9 |
| TD % | 57.1% | 56.3% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 3 |
| Made | 4 | 3 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 14 |
| Made | 9 | 13 |
| Pct | 90.0% | 92.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.