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TLSA
Tulsa
Golden HurricaneBalancedAmerican Conference4-8#59 (+1.39)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
56· COverall
Offense
46· CRating
31· DPer play
14· FConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
57· CPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.059
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.048
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.028
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.056
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.80
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.18
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.89
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 16 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense40th
Opp-adjusted defense75th
Offensive EPA/play31th
Defensive EPA/play57th
Offensive success rate19th
Explosiveness15th
Defensive havoc13th
Points per drive26th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Colorado State2021OA -0.039 / -0.035similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3622Colorado2018OA -0.017 / +0.030similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3493Liberty2026OA +0.021 / +0.022similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3344San José State2026OA -0.007 / +0.033similar: passing offense, turnover rate, TD drive rate3335Georgia State2017OA -0.067 / -0.042similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense333
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Michigan State | 7-28 | L | +22.0 | W | 47.5 | U |
| 2 | @ San José State | 34-16 | W | -6.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Oklahoma State | 21-40 | L | +14.0 | L | 64 | U |
| 4 | vs Wyoming | 24-21 | W | -5.5 | L | 46 | U |
| 6 | @ SMU | 37-43 | L | +12.0 | W | 63.5 | O |
| 7 | vs Navy | 17-45 | L | -1.0 | L | 52 | O |
| 8 | @ Cincinnati | 13-24 | L | +16.0 | W | 47 | U |
| 9 | vs Memphis | 41-42 | L | +10.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Tulane | 26-38 | L | +10.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 11 | vs UCF | 34-31 | W | +17.0 | W | 68.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Houston | 14-24 | L | -6.5 | L | 58 | U |
| 14 | @ East Carolina | 49-24 | W | -6.5 | W | 64.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS2-3
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.021 | 36th | +0.006 | 46th |
| Red Zone | -0.099 | 32th | +0.060 | 32th |
| Third Down | +0.139 | 73th | -0.021 | 63th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.021 | 39th | -0.015 | 57th |
| First Half | -0.025 | 39th | +0.003 | 50th |
| Second Half | -0.017 | 40th | +0.009 | 51th |
| Early Downs | -0.068 | 22th | -0.059 | 75th |
| Passing Downs | -0.006 | 43th | +0.058 | 35th |
| Standard Downs | -0.031 | 34th | -0.023 | 63th |
| Goal to Go | +0.082 | 65th | +0.164 | 20th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
419.7
Pts/Drive
1.80
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
19.9%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Tulsa | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 317 | 376 |
| Points / Game | 26.4 | 31.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 263 | 233 |
| Rushing | 103 | 103 |
| Passing | 135 | 99 |
| Penalty | 25 | 31 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 503 | 496 |
| Yards | 1,660 | 2,221 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.3 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 138.3 | 185.1 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 29 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 444 | 339 |
| Completions | 254 | 191 |
| Completion % | 57.2% | 56.3% |
| Yards | 3,376 | 2,516 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 7.4 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 131.89 | 129.36 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 947 | 835 |
| Yards | 5,036 | 4,737 |
| Yards / Play | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Yards / Game | 419.7 | 394.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 23 |
| Yards | 58 | 208 |
| Average | 4.1 | 9.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 49 |
| Yards | 495 | 985 |
| Average | 19.0 | 20.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 63 |
| Yards | 2,636 | 2,702 |
| Average | 41.8 | 42.9 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 9 |
| Yards | 37 | 120 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 14 |
| Lost | 10 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 109 | 101 |
| Yards | 949 | 875 |
| Yards / Game | 79.1 | 72.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:39 | 29:21 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 205 | 179 |
| Conversions | 88 | 61 |
| Conversion % | 42.9% | 34.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 31 |
| Conversions | 13 | 21 |
| Conversion % | 56.5% | 67.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 49 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 40 | 33 |
| Score % | 81.6% | 76.7% |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 23 |
| TD % | 53.1% | 53.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 17 |
| Made | 15 | 14 |
| Pct | 62.5% | 82.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 45 |
| Made | 38 | 44 |
| Pct | 97.4% | 97.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 2 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.