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CSU
Colorado State
RamsBalancedPac-12 Conference3-9#105 (-4.90)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
22· DOverall
Offense
19· DRating
22· DPer play
38· DConsistency
16· DBig plays
Defense
34· DRating
56· CPer play
86· BConsistency
Situational
17· DRed-zone O
45· CRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
62· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.087
Defensive EPA/play
-0.036
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.0%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.052
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.021
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.65
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.52
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.59
own return game
Return Defense
-0.76
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#105
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#86
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense37th
Opp-adjusted defense30th
Offensive EPA/play22th
Defensive EPA/play56th
Offensive success rate41th
Explosiveness16th
Defensive havoc66th
Points per drive17th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Tulsa2019OA -0.027 / +0.059similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3622Tulsa2021OA -0.014 / +0.041similar: passing offense, run defense, defensive EPA3463Oklahoma State2020OA -0.004 / +0.038similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate3444Missouri2022OA -0.024 / +0.119similar: run defense, offensive success rate, passing offense3345Arizona State2025OA +0.006 / +0.099similar: run defense, passing offense, defensive success rate332
2021 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs South Dakota State | 23-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Vanderbilt | 21-24 | L | -3.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Toledo | 22-6 | W | +14.0 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Iowa | 14-24 | L | +23.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 6 | vs San José State | 32-14 | W | -2.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 7 | @ New Mexico | 36-7 | W | -10.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Utah State | 24-26 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs Boise State | 19-28 | L | +2.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Wyoming | 17-31 | L | -3.5 | L | 40.5 | O |
| 11 | vs Air Force | 21-35 | L | +2.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Hawai'i | 45-50 | L | -2.5 | L | 54 | O |
| 13 | vs Nevada | 10-52 | L | +4.0 | L | 55.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.070 | 25th | -0.048 | 66th |
| Red Zone | -0.178 | 17th | -0.014 | 46th |
| Third Down | +0.105 | 56th | +0.027 | 62th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.091 | 20th | -0.040 | 59th |
| First Half | -0.076 | 27th | -0.006 | 50th |
| Second Half | -0.063 | 26th | -0.086 | 80th |
| Early Downs | -0.134 | 10th | -0.103 | 83th |
| Passing Downs | +0.018 | 56th | +0.052 | 33th |
| Standard Downs | -0.121 | 12th | -0.109 | 87th |
| Goal to Go | -0.298 | 14th | +0.664 | 0th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 43.5%Rush 56.5%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
415.8
Pts/Drive
1.65
3rd Down%
40.6%
3&Out%
19.2%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 12 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 284 | 339 |
| Points / Game | 23.7 | 28.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 255 | 239 |
| Rushing | 93 | 114 |
| Passing | 150 | 97 |
| Penalty | 12 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 515 | 494 |
| Yards | 1,969 | 1,995 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 164.1 | 166.3 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 396 | 335 |
| Completions | 237 | 194 |
| Completion % | 59.8% | 57.9% |
| Yards | 3,020 | 2,533 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 130.85 | 140.50 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 911 | 829 |
| Yards | 4,989 | 4,528 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 415.8 | 377.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 21 |
| Yards | 165 | 279 |
| Average | 7.5 | 13.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 18 | 33 |
| Yards | 461 | 647 |
| Average | 25.6 | 19.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 60 | 72 |
| Yards | 2,995 | 3,154 |
| Average | 49.9 | 43.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 11 |
| Yards | 106 | 53 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 15 |
| Lost | 8 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 85 | 68 |
| Yards | 822 | 580 |
| Yards / Game | 68.5 | 48.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:02 | 30:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 202 | 177 |
| Conversions | 82 | 65 |
| Conversion % | 40.6% | 36.7% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 17 |
| Conversions | 10 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 40.0% | 64.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 49 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 41 | 35 |
| Score % | 83.7% | 83.3% |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 25 |
| TD % | 42.9% | 59.5% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 18 |
| Made | 25 | 13 |
| Pct | 78.1% | 72.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 29 | 42 |
| Made | 29 | 42 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.