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COLO
Colorado
BuffaloesBalancedBig 12 Conference5-7#82 (-1.10)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
38· DOverall
Offense
42· CRating
39· DPer play
23· DConsistency
22· DBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
55· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
29· D3rd down O
48· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.017
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.020
Defensive EPA/play
-0.014
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.8%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.006
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.245
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.16
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#82
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#45
recruiting 37 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense37th
Opp-adjusted defense61th
Offensive EPA/play40th
Defensive EPA/play55th
Offensive success rate17th
Explosiveness23th
Defensive havoc35th
Points per drive40th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida State2019OA -0.009 / +0.034similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3952Michigan State2022OA +0.034 / -0.048similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, turnover rate3683Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: passing offense, run defense, offensive success rate3524Tulsa2019OA -0.027 / +0.059similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3495Virginia Tech2022OA -0.094 / +0.007similar: rushing offense, run defense, offensive success rate346
2018 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Colorado State | 45-13 | W | -7.0 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 2 | @ Nebraska | 33-28 | W | +3.0 | W | 62 | U |
| 3 | vs New Hampshire | 45-14 | W | -37.0 | L | 53 | O |
| 5 | vs UCLA | 38-16 | W | -9.0 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Arizona State | 28-21 | W | -2.5 | W | 64 | U |
| 7 | @ USC | 20-31 | L | +7.0 | L | 57 | U |
| 8 | @ Washington | 13-27 | L | +18.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Oregon State | 34-41 | L | -26.5 | L | 59.5 | O |
| 10 | @ Arizona | 34-42 | L | +3.0 | L | 57 | O |
| 11 | vs Washington State | 7-31 | L | +5.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Utah | 7-30 | L | +7.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 13 | @ California | 21-33 | L | +10.5 | L | 44.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
4-8
33.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.045 | 25th | -0.019 | 57th |
| Red Zone | +0.068 | 65th | -0.155 | 82th |
| Third Down | -0.044 | 29th | +0.029 | 48th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.024 | 36th | -0.017 | 56th |
| First Half | -0.017 | 42th | -0.046 | 58th |
| Second Half | -0.070 | 23th | +0.012 | 47th |
| Early Downs | -0.047 | 29th | -0.036 | 57th |
| Passing Downs | -0.030 | 38th | +0.032 | 47th |
| Standard Downs | -0.053 | 26th | -0.050 | 66th |
| Goal to Go | +0.152 | 68th | +0.133 | 39th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
14.3
Yards/Game
392.6
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
36.1%
3&Out%
22.1%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 12 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 325 | 327 |
| Points / Game | 27.1 | 27.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 248 | 244 |
| Rushing | 91 | 99 |
| Passing | 133 | 117 |
| Penalty | 24 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 452 | 467 |
| Yards | 1,716 | 1,747 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 143.0 | 145.6 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 420 | 404 |
| Completions | 271 | 229 |
| Completion % | 64.5% | 56.7% |
| Yards | 2,995 | 2,816 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.1 | 7.0 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 133.64 | 130.06 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 872 | 871 |
| Yards | 4,711 | 4,563 |
| Yards / Play | 5.4 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 392.6 | 380.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 19 |
| Yards | 260 | 89 |
| Average | 7.9 | 4.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 24 | 25 |
| Yards | 499 | 457 |
| Average | 20.8 | 18.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 64 | 66 |
| Yards | 2,512 | 3,014 |
| Average | 39.3 | 45.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 12 |
| Yards | 98 | 181 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 4 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 16 |
| Lost | 7 | 7 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 71 | 86 |
| Yards | 664 | 775 |
| Yards / Game | 55.3 | 64.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:38 | 30:23 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 183 | 186 |
| Conversions | 66 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 36.1% | 36.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 22 |
| Conversions | 9 | 12 |
| Conversion % | 39.1% | 54.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 38 | 43 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 32 | 37 |
| Score % | 84.2% | 86.0% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 22 |
| TD % | 63.2% | 51.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 23 |
| Made | 11 | 19 |
| Pct | 68.8% | 82.6% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 36 |
| Made | 40 | 34 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 94.4% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.