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FSU
Florida State
SeminolesBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference6-7#60 (+1.31)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
55· COverall
Offense
43· CRating
33· DPer play
35· DConsistency
24· DBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
52· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
60· CRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
28· D3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.009
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.041
Defensive EPA/play
-0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.3%
Def Success Rate
45.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.039
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.003
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.99
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#60
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#7
recruiting 53 spots higher
51 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense48th
Opp-adjusted defense63th
Offensive EPA/play33th
Defensive EPA/play52th
Offensive success rate30th
Explosiveness24th
Defensive havoc28th
Points per drive40th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Colorado2018OA -0.017 / +0.030similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3952Temple2019OA -0.103 / +0.056similar: run defense, offensive success rate, turnover rate3703Fresno State2024OA -0.025 / +0.018similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3574Ole Miss2026OA +0.002 / -0.042similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3565NC State2020OA -0.009 / +0.007similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate352
2019 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Boise State | 31-36 | L | +3.5 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 2 | vs UL Monroe | 45-44 | W | -22.5 | L | 65.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Virginia | 24-31 | L | +7.0 | P | 54.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Louisville | 35-24 | W | -6.5 | W | 61 | U |
| 5 | vs NC State | 31-13 | W | -7.0 | W | 62 | U |
| 7 | @ Clemson | 14-45 | L | +25.5 | L | 60.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Wake Forest | 20-22 | L | -3.0 | L | 69 | U |
| 9 | vs Syracuse | 35-17 | W | -12.0 | W | 60 | U |
| 10 | vs Miami | 10-27 | L | -3.0 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Boston College | 38-31 | W | +1.5 | W | 64 | O |
| 12 | vs Alabama State | 49-12 | W | -41.0 | L | 53 | O |
| 14 | @ Florida | 17-40 | L | +17.5 | L | 55 | O |
| 19 | @ Arizona State | 14-20 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
WLWLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.019 | 37th | -0.011 | 57th |
| Red Zone | +0.021 | 60th | -0.246 | 89th |
| Third Down | -0.059 | 28th | +0.028 | 48th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.025 | 37th | -0.004 | 53th |
| First Half | -0.025 | 38th | -0.033 | 58th |
| Second Half | -0.013 | 42th | +0.016 | 44th |
| Early Downs | -0.002 | 48th | +0.007 | 49th |
| Passing Downs | -0.025 | 40th | +0.070 | 32th |
| Standard Downs | -0.016 | 40th | -0.055 | 74th |
| Goal to Go | -0.169 | 31th | -0.197 | 68th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
13.8
Yards/Game
408.3
Pts/Drive
1.99
3rd Down%
35.6%
3&Out%
24.7%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 13 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Florida State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 363 | 362 |
| Points / Game | 27.9 | 27.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 265 | 309 |
| Rushing | 102 | 105 |
| Passing | 138 | 163 |
| Penalty | 25 | 41 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 477 | 535 |
| Yards | 1,829 | 1,917 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Yards / Game | 140.7 | 147.5 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 18 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 432 | 504 |
| Completions | 279 | 308 |
| Completion % | 64.6% | 61.1% |
| Yards | 3,479 | 3,597 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 7.1 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 144.55 | 130.33 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 909 | 1,039 |
| Yards | 5,308 | 5,514 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 408.3 | 424.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 17 |
| Yards | 132 | 96 |
| Average | 6.6 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 14 |
| Yards | 483 | 332 |
| Average | 25.4 | 23.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 77 | 66 |
| Yards | 3,054 | 2,919 |
| Average | 39.7 | 44.2 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 13 |
| Yards | 94 | 195 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 21 |
| Lost | 8 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 119 | 87 |
| Yards | 953 | 737 |
| Yards / Game | 73.3 | 56.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 26:15 | 33:45 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 191 | 225 |
| Conversions | 68 | 91 |
| Conversion % | 35.6% | 40.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 21 |
| Conversions | 11 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 57.9% | 52.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 40 | 64 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 55 |
| Score % | 82.5% | 85.9% |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 30 |
| TD % | 67.5% | 46.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 14 | 37 |
| Made | 7 | 28 |
| Pct | 50.0% | 75.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 37 |
| Made | 46 | 34 |
| Pct | 97.9% | 91.9% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.